To gamble or not to gamble?

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To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby LukeWinstonPS » Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:22 am

PokerStars Hand #73686781298: Tournament #496751766, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVI (350/700) - 2012/01/11 16:45:30 ET
Table '496751766 193' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: realbuzz1 (14830 in chips)
Seat 2: pokerboy8127 (35295 in chips)
Seat 3: JotaRPoker (15829 in chips)
Seat 4: rud13 (2162 in chips)
Seat 5: shilyaeff (17508 in chips)
Seat 6: fill_fda (9406 in chips)
Seat 7: student944 (13620 in chips)
Seat 8: LukeWinston (14778 in chips)
Seat 9: jozee100 (1320 in chips)
realbuzz1: posts the ante 85
pokerboy8127: posts the ante 85
JotaRPoker: posts the ante 85
rud13: posts the ante 85
shilyaeff: posts the ante 85
fill_fda: posts the ante 85
student944: posts the ante 85
LukeWinston: posts the ante 85
jozee100: posts the ante 85
shilyaeff: posts small blind 350
fill_fda: posts big blind 700
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LukeWinston [Kh Ah]
student944: folds
LukeWinston: raises 780 to 1480
jozee100: folds
realbuzz1: folds
pokerboy8127: folds
JotaRPoker: raises 14264 to 15744 and is all-in
rud13: folds
shilyaeff: folds
fill_fda: folds
LukeWinston: ???????????????????


I have a question on this hand, will appreciate feedback on this. Please ignore the buy in level as a base for your answers because I'm sure for some people this situation is a no brainer.

Situation:
370+ players left, top 306 gets paid, 220+ in chips. 20BB in chips, average chips is 25-30BB.

Should i call if:

1. I'm putting him on a strong pair
2. I feel i can play well post flop against any opponents on this table
3. I can fold to the money and work my way up from there
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby lovedrunksex » Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:44 am

cant fold 20bb
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby mal » Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:11 am

If it is AKo, QQ, JJ, i will fold instantly.. if it is AKs, i will not.. simply it is a strong premium hand. In tourney, u have to win flips in order to win. one final table beats many times ITM.
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby kklp » Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:25 am

AKo you will fold but AKs you wont? sorry but i can't really see the logic in that knowing that the difference between both is quite minimal :/

cant see myself folding there, its one of those times in the tourny where you really hate to call but know you have to in order to get ahead of the crowd. insta.
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby MJFX » Thu Jan 12, 2012 12:59 pm

Im gg to relate this to a hand i played in macau millions last year when i called a shove with AK.
http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/pokerstar ... 80109.html

I was "gambling" for the chip lead when i'm so certain big stack is shoving light. It reall depends on ur read on ur opponent, if his range includes Ax, Kx then for me, it is still ok to call.

U havent put much chips in and u felt u have the post flop edge.
Then in this case, fold. Most of the time u are flipping even if villian has JT.
Though based on bet sizing, u can rule out typically AA/KK.
Conclusion, i will rather be the one shoving than calling..
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby kr176 » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:45 pm

lol @ bet/folding AK with 20bb.......fist pump snap call......at worst u r flipping.
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby dadzz » Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:45 pm

My analysis base on level and Luke's position at the table. Villain with AT - AK, 88 - QQ - thinking that Luke (with min-raise) wants to steal the blinds and antes. If villain has QQ - AA, surely he will slowplay and re-raise only waiting Luke to shove.

Agree with Mal that AK is a strong premium hand. It's a player's wish when running deep.

Just UL for MJFX to lose his big slick on flips at MM last year. I guess Luke called and was UL too on flips???
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby mugiwara84 » Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:44 pm

u raised utg +1 n get rejammed by mid pos 20bb stack. in general this is very strong n ur probably flipping at best, only ahead to AT/J/Q. But this is a micro tourney wif a ton of monkeys out there, n wif a 20bb stack there's not gonna be room for post flop play. Even though it's so near the bubble, go big/go home. no point min cashing. call
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby felixleong » Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:06 am

first of all, very little info on opponent.. the most important info I want is his 3bet%
or whether if he is loose or tight...

1)if he is loose, his 3bet shove range could be 77+ AJ+
2)if he is tight, only 3bet-ing 5% of the time.. maybe AQ+ 99+
3)if he is a nit... maybe AK or QQ+ only...

Against 1) very easy call
against 2) a call but your edge only comes when he shows u AQ.. against most of his range u are flipping
against 3) you must fold... u draw with AK, flip with QQ and lose to AA/KK

with no info... considering its low stakes $3.30... i think say on average i wil weight
50% your opponent is 1) 40% 2) and 10% 3), on the balance I will CALL

hope this helps ^^
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby felixleong » Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:09 am

the other info like, which stage of tournament, the blinds level and the stack sizes are secondary
If this was a bubble situation, folding to get into the money might give more expected valued.
But for tournaments, best to always aim for top 3... which is where the real money is~ you only get good hands that often, go for it!
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby xcaliblur » Sat Jan 14, 2012 1:00 am

I also dont see the difference between AKo and AKs- how can you shove with one and fold with the other? The difference in win % preflop is so small that it should not affect the decision to this point.

End of the day it comes down to how tight you feel the villain is playing- If you havent seen him in any hand for the past hour, then perhaps it would be wise to fold. But if he plays every other pot, or even every 4-5 hands then you should really consider calling. You only have about 20BB on average, and so does everyone else on the table- in this case, ppl will start 3 bet shoving with non premium hands, such as TT, JJ, maybe even smaller pocket pairs.

If you call and win you will have a 2:1 chip lead over everyone else. If you fold, you are down to less than 20BB, with antes going every hand you will soon regret folding your AK. I'd say it is worth the risk here. The others up there have mentioned hands that got you dominated or are a flip against you, but there are also hands that you crush that villain might have such as AQ, AJ, KQ etc.
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby LukeWinstonPS » Mon Jan 23, 2012 7:00 am

Add this to equation:

You only see villain do this with JJ, QQ, KK, AA, & AK.

What would you do?
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby chickenkid » Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:22 pm

i am calling man 100% of the time. if u fold here, i cant see how you are gonna move up the money or go deep. at most u would just min cash and blinded down. unless u pick of kings or aces in the next 40 hands?
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Re: To gamble or not to gamble?

Postby support » Fri Oct 25, 2013 7:41 pm

fchenaj I've changed your links to fifa coin website to "I'm a fag", nice try adding a signature. This is your final warning.
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