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ICM part 1

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 12:55 am
by Belousov
The independent chip model theory. Probably the most used model in Sngs today. Forget about Sklanskys gap theory or anything Harrington has taught you, ICM is what you need to know. Even if you are nitzilla, and you could never imagine pushing 96s, Q3s or K5o, ICM should be important to you, because the best players are those that understand the "metagame" , the plays that are being made on a regular basis and the reasoning behind them, and figure out how to make their play unexploitable, as well as exploit the plays of other players. I browse the internet forums looking to buttress my edge on the game and I usually find 3-5 new posts a week titled "Chipleader going crazy on the" "Top ranked player raising 90% of his hands what should I do". If you are playing SNGs, the people posting these queries are the ones you want to play.

So what is ICM? Icm is a mathematical paradigm the calculates your current equity in the prize pool based on relative stack sizes. Situation 1

Player 1 1500 prize pool 500$
Player 2 7000 300$
Player 3 2500 200$
Player 4 4000

This is pretty standard bubble situation in your standard SNG.
Now lets calculate the current equity of each player
Player Chips Prob 1st Prob 2nd Prob 3rd Equity
Player 1
1500.00 0.1000 0.1439 0.2365 $140.45
Player 2
7000.00 0.4667 0.3149 0.1670 $361.19
Player 3
2500.00 0.1667 0.2250 0.3229 $215.39
Player 4
4000.00 0.2667 0.3163 0.2737 $282.96

blinds are 400/200
players 3 and 2 are in the BB and SB repsectively player 4 pushes from UTG and it Folds around to player 3 He looks down at 99,it's decision time. Assuming player 4 is pushing the top 25% Player 3's probability of winning is 56% now lets calculate the equity if player 3 calls and wins

Player Chips Prob 1st Prob 2nd Prob 3rd Equity
Player 1
1500.00 0.1000 0.1486 0.3100 $156.59
Player 2
7000.00 0.4667 0.3370 0.1563 $365.71
Player 3
5000.00 0.3333 0.3657 0.2236 $321.12
Player 4
1500.00 0.1000 0.1486 0.3100 $156.59

and his equity if he folds preflop

Player Chips Prob 1st Prob 2nd Prob 3rd Equity
Player 1
1500.00 0.1000 0.1434 0.2564 $144.31
Player 2
6800.00 0.4533 0.3247 0.1704 $358.16
Player 3
2100.00 0.1400 0.1936 0.3256 $193.19
Player 4
4600.00 0.3067 0.3383 0.2476 $304.34

now divide player 3's equity of calling and winning by his equity if he folds if it greater than his percentage of winning it is a fold. Player 3's equity is just at 60% while his percentage of winning is 56%. So this is a pretty clear fold. Unexpected?? When I started playing 99 was a super insta fist pump call. What about you??

Now a little homework lesson what is the minimum hand range player 3 should be calling with if player 2 is pushing ATC when it is folded around to him (which he should be doing) gl :) I will continue with parts 2 and 3 if anyone is interested :)

Re: ICM part 1

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:17 am
by felixleong
ICM is interesting, too bad i never play any more SNGs le
8-)

Re: ICM part 1

PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 9:28 pm
by newbie
hi there.. a noob question.. how do you count the prob 2nd and prob 3rd??