Advice needed

Discuss the basics, psychology, probability, table selection etc.

Re: Advice needed

Postby tally-ho » Thu May 26, 2011 8:25 am

there's a factor that you likely overlooked when playing this hand,

the question that needs to be answered is: "what type of a player is the villain?"

so like everyone else said about ranges, it's difficult to deduce a range vs an unknown.

If it was vs a good reg for example, i would say 98% of the time you're beat here.

If it was vs the king of the lagtard superdonkey who never folds an overpair/top pair here, obviously we need to stack off.

However vs an unknown, in my opinion a line that better controls the size of the pot is better here.

for example, on the flop; sb checks, you bet 80. fine. sb raise to 240, so here we think villians likely holdings consist of alot of draw type hands e.g jh10h 5d6d 9d10d etc and also overpairs, underpairs, 8x, 88,7x...
so although flatting would be fine, i feel ur decision to reraise on the flop is good too, id definately make the bet sizing smaller, something like 2x-2.2x is sufficient. So villain should now be folding his random draws/backdoors and underpairs, and likely peeling one with hands like overpairs and 88,7x sometimes 910.
so he calls, and we can immediately discard the bottom 60% of his range from his possible holdings.
the turn brings a J, so now jj gets there, 910 gets there but nothing else.
i feel that checking the turn back here is better than pot commiting ur stack.
although a flush draw hits no other draws really open up on that board and likely likelyhood of him having a club draw is unlikely given his flop calling range unless its 9c10c or 5c6c or sometimes 8cxc
so now by betting our hand we really only get shoved on by hands that crush us, 910,jj,7j,87,a7,k7 (probably check calls) especially with your bet sizing,
you bet more than 50% of ur remaining stack effectively pot commiting yourself, any half thinking decent villain will realise you will not be folding to this bet, and if he has nuts..will decide the best line to extract value is to shove the turn (especially incase you are semibluffing a turned/flopped draw)
so lets say we check back the turn, and the river comes 2 spades. if villain checks, we assume his likely holdings are overpairs here sometimes 8x so once he checks we can bet for value.
so you made your 3bet to 500 on the flop rather than 720 so now there's about 1120 in the pot, i'd value bet small, something like 455 for example. Now we get paid off more often by his weaker hands; 8x overpairs jx and we likely get flatted by all 7x hands k and below. If villain now shoves, and he is a good reg player..i think you are completely smashed and F**D up the @$$hole and should fold.

so thinking about the way you played it, the way the hand played out on that turn VS a donkey its pretty close but you'd probably have to call just because your pot commited and you have i'd say a 50/50 chance of being ahead. VS a good reg however, you probably still need to call it off pot committing yourself but you are VERY LIKELY crushed here.

so there are alot of factors to take into consideration. i'm sure i have not outlined them all. too stonedddddddddddddddddddd
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