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What Would You Do? Show Me the Money!!!!

PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 3:58 pm
by suitedpairs29
Its the final table of the Sunday Million, online poker's richest guaranteed prize pool, this week a staggering 6121 players joined for purse of USD 1,230,200. You are in the fortunate condition of being 4th in chips being barely covered by 3rd and 2nd chip leaders, with the top chip leader having almost double of 2nd place. The table is also new as you have only played with the current chip leader who you saw suck out big time to cripple the chip leader before and take out 3 big stacks to be in the position he is now. He is not a very good player in your opinion, seems fairly solid, but has gotten very lucky. There has been no talk of chop just yet.

The table has been very tight and it is very apparent that everyone is still in awe of the amount of money they are about to make. You are in the same frame of mind and try and calm yourself down. After the short stack busts out losing 10s against AQo, all hell breaks loose as people bust left right and center. After the chaos and all the dust settles, 5 are left, 4 of you with almost equal stacks, around 15-20BB each, and the lucksack CL, with 45BB, is still in good chip position.

You wake up with rockets under the gun and cannot wait to get your money in the middle. You raise the standard 4xBB, and are immediately reraised by the next player, who, based on his bet, is obviously pot-committed. The button, with the same stack as you, shoves all in. The CL in the SB, comes over the top and goes all in as well. The BB folds and now its on you. This is a fairly simple decision right? Lets make it more interesting:

1st: USD 246040.00
2nd: USD 147008.90
3rd: USD 91649.90
4th: USD 70736.50
5th: USD 54743.90

If you call and win, you will have a shot at 2nd or 1st place money. If you call and lose, you are definitely out and get 4th or 5th place money. If you fold, depending what happens in the all in bonanza, you probably are guaranteed 3rd or 4th. You may have a shot at winning, but considering the huge chip lead of everyone else its unlikely. Given that the table is playing fairly solid with a chance of maybe one bluff or marginal hand in this madness, do you play to cash or do you play to win? Question you have to ask yourself is ...

What Would You Do?

Re: What Would You Do? Show Me the Money!!!!

PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 8:57 pm
by ohboy
if someone flops a set on their underpair, you're probably drawing close to dead

But you have the odds going in preflop, small as it is with such a big group following you in.

Thing is, folding gives your guaranteed 4th place unless the guy on your left doesn't call it. It also gives you 3rd, should the chip leader win.

Calling gives you great value if your aces hold up. You're automatically 3rd, but with a decent enough chip count to last to the final 2. If chip leader is truly playing way over his head, you stand a good chance of making first.

I think i'll fold and hope the chip leader sucks out again.

Re: What Would You Do? Show Me the Money!!!!

PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 11:38 pm
by suitedpairs29
Interesting POV ohboy.

I was almost guaranteed that the first response would have been a call and hope for no suck out

Lets hear some more interesting takes on this situation

:ugeek: :ugeek: :ugeek:

Re: What Would You Do? Show Me the Money!!!!

PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 11:48 pm
by vaevictis
2 points of view.

1) if you really need the extra money by placing higher, folding Aces PF with so many all-ins is can be correct. There are articles talking about this, but I can't remember where. Folding aces in cashgames PF is always wrong, but in tourneys, with the escalating payout at the top 3 places, and if you think you have an edge over the others in making into the top 3, then folding aces PF can be correct.

2) If money is not a concern, because either u play for the fame and glory or that your bankroll is so huge, calling Aces preflop is definitely a +EV move over the long term. If u lose, too bad, but if u win, imagine the towering chiplead you have aganist the rest and first place should almost be confirmed.

Re: What Would You Do? Show Me the Money!!!!

PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 2:53 pm
by felixleong
i think

Calling with AA here is positive chips EV (expected value)
BUT Negative $$ EV

if i really need the $$ i will fold
but by default i call , i always go for win cause i value the sensation, glory and pride of 1st place over anything else hehe

if this similiar situation were to occur in the WSOP with similiar ratio of payout , its a 100% call
cause winning events like WSOP there are 'hidden' bonus of 1st place
like the bracelet, watch and lots and lots of endorsment deals and sponsorship