Understanding Variance

Anything poker-related, and which doesn't fit into other forum categories

Understanding Variance

Postby vaevictis » Thu Mar 27, 2008 4:20 am

Don't talk about running bad, talk about being a winning player first.

A good study on variance of a winning player with different standard deviations due to their playing style.

http://www.leggopoker.com/blogs/isura/v ... s-370.html


Think deeper into the implications and kind of graphs marginal winners, breakeven players, losing players are going to get.
vaevictis
Challenge Poker Player
 
Posts: 253
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:46 pm

Re: Understanding Variance

Postby ohboy » Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:04 pm

1) you cannot remove the 0s. They warp the data.
2) the graph should NOT look like a normal distribution. That's just silly.
3) Mathematical standard deviation is useless on anything that doesn't look like normal distribution. Ditto for variance.

The only significant thing in the graphs really is that most have no drastic drawdowns. That's just amazing.
ohboy
Shark
 
Posts: 465
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2007 10:48 pm

Re: Understanding Variance

Postby vaevictis » Thu Mar 27, 2008 5:08 pm

Good that you pointed out the assumptions. These graphs oversimplify actual profit/loss graphs of players because firstly individual poker hands are not independant of each other (think of image and how ppl react to you), and secondly it assumes that variance follows normal distribution. I think the point is of it is to bring out the point of variance (assuming normal distribution) even when you are a winning player.

Note the results are based on initial assumptions posted by Ohboy and the calculations are based on a winning player at more than 4PTBB/100 over a significant sample size, it is obvious you dont see drawdowns because they are graphs of winning players, yet in some graphs you can see significant downswings.
vaevictis
Challenge Poker Player
 
Posts: 253
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:46 pm


Return to General Poker Chat

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

 

Recent Posts

Subscribe to RSS headline updates from:
Powered by FeedBurner

Site

Subscribe to RSS headline updates from:
Powered by FeedBurner




cron