SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

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SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby revvy » Tue Oct 21, 2008 4:38 pm

Full Tilt Poker Game #8588030773: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (65482527), Table 1 - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 4:31:10 ET - 2008/10/21
Seat 2: GoldenHayir (4,775)
Seat 4: spoonthedog (990)
Seat 6: mrcow69 (3,400)
Seat 7: Hero (4,335)
spoonthedog posts the small blind of 80
mrcow69 posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qh] [Qd]
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero raises to 560
GoldenHayir calls 560
spoonthedog folds
mrcow69 folds
*** FLOP *** [9c] [3s] [4h]
Hero bets 960
GoldenHayir calls 960
*** TURN *** [9c] [3s] [4h] [7c]
Hero checks
GoldenHayir bets 3,255, and is all in

Thought I could get a cheaper showdown by checking on the turn. And the villian ended up shoving. To call or not to call? (Calling puts me all in.)
Note the shortie still hanging on with 990.
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby colorwolf » Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:18 pm

fold.
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby Nicefingers » Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:45 am

you under-rep ur overpair to a AK miss flop with cbet and check on turn. You kinda turned ur QQ into a bluff. Thats one of the best flop u can get with QQ. You raised and he called so i don't think he's hanging around with 56 or 97 unless he is loose.

he probably has A9 or pockets <10. i don't think a set/straight will wana really force u out on the turn with an overbet all in.

From that perspective of shoving, i can only think of him trying to push off a AK type of hands.

Since u've already under-rep ur hands so i guess its a fold since u still have a substantial stack than the shortest stack.
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby newbie » Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:04 pm

gee, why would you want a cheaper showdown here? i'd take the initiative to stack off :P
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby ZephyrZero » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:12 pm

[Qh] [Qd] hmmmm I might fold.... this guy might have [Kd] [Ks] or [Ah] [Ad] , when the flush draw appeared he pushed it all-in!
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby Nicefingers » Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:02 pm

well, without knowing the image of the villain, its quite hard for outsiders to read. But like i said, that's the perfect flop for QQ.
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby Lo0o0o0n » Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:34 pm

simple call for me man...

this is a SnG...and blinds are quite big already...u probably ain't gonna find a batter spot to put all ur $$ in...so unless u think he turned u (which i don't think so)...all of ur chips should be going in...
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby ManilaBoy » Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:55 am

Lo0o0o0n wrote:simple call for me man...

this is a SnG...and blinds are quite big already...u probably ain't gonna find a batter spot to put all ur $$ in...so unless u think he turned u (which i don't think so)...all of ur chips should be going in...


+1, I dont see any K or A on the flop, I think he is flush draw and a pair or flush and straight draw.
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby ohboy » Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:56 pm

jackie folds, so obviously you gotta call there
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby AsiaPokerAcademy » Thu Oct 23, 2008 4:37 pm

bet this turn yourself, stack off to a raise.

as played, snap call.
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby revvy » Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:08 pm

hmm thanks for all the inputs guys.
but point to note is that this is a SnG game on the bubble. why call the all-in when you know your villian more often than not is not risking his stack just because he puts you on overcards. (rarely do you find players bluffing in sngs). even if you folded there, it doesn't reduce much of your chance of getting in the money. plus, your drop in equity in winning the first prize by folding there is not huge, from 35% down to 22% based on the ICM.

at this stakes, we'd probably take this gamble by calling because it's unlikely that he has a set or 2 pairs, or even KK or AA. would it still be the same if we are grinding at $525 SNGS? but i had reasoned that this would more probably be a fold because:
1) there's a shortie hanging there with 990 (6BBs)
2) you still have 3000 chips after folding there (still healthy with almost 20BBs)
3) you're risking your entire stack to catch a bluff/semi-bluff/one-pair
4) he wouldn't risk his chance of being ITM just to bluff you off your hand
5) (circumstantial) the guy isn't a donkey to begin with, neither is he a maniac. put him on pp instantly after he called my flop bet.

i know the way the hand is played, it's probably an instant call in cash games or even in huge tournaments on the bubble (because first prize pays out MUCH more than the last few pos ITM). But for SNG bubble plays, is it arguably a +ev fold?

for SNGs grinders, is it more important to ensure that you are in the money when you're leading? or is it more important to risk your entire stack to improve your chances of finishing first? i hope someone can shed some light on this.

btw, i called. and the guy showed pocket 4s. :|
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby Nicefingers » Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:29 pm

ul. run better next time.
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby ohboy » Tue Oct 28, 2008 8:38 pm

needs more rabbit foot
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Re: SNG QUIZ: would you fold this hand on the bubble?

Postby Nicefingers » Tue Oct 28, 2008 9:59 pm

ohboy with lame jokes is bad beat.
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