?New business proposal?-Poker insurance agst bad beats

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?New business proposal?-Poker insurance agst bad beats

Postby Lo0o0o0n » Mon Jan 05, 2009 1:43 pm

Hey all...

school has started again for me...and im taking a module on risk management and insurance...as my prof was explaining the mechanics of insurance policy and how premiums are calculated...something came to me...if insurance companies are insuring pple agst loses of property and lives and such...y not agst bad beats for poker players....after all...the statistics are all there already...unlike the insurance companies, they have to go out and gather the statistics of a certain event happening...

so for example...if there is a 20% chance for a car accident happening...and they are insuring an average amt of lets say $5000 for a car accident...they will need $1000 each from 5 participants to break even..and any more participants would result in profit of the insurance company...of course u will need more then 5 participants...according to the law of large numbers...probably abt 1000 pple...

so in a poker context...i can set up a poker insurance company...can insure u...for lets say a 2 outter after the flop...we know the chances of that 2 outter coming out is 5%...so...if i insure on average the player $1000 for his bad beat...i would need $50 from 20 pple to break even...of course anything more will result in profit...and this can be done for EVERY single suck out u can think of...for all the stakes...

to me...i think this will be very useful for solid tight players...as suck outs will take a LOONG time for them to get even...

yehhh....juz a thought....i sure there are some flaws with this idea of mine...kindly point them out...thanks...coz i have yet to see them...haa thx again guys...for taking time out to read my looonnngg business proposal...haaa

chill~

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Re: ?New business proposal?-Poker insurance agst bad beats

Postby vaevictis » Mon Jan 05, 2009 11:39 pm

Interesting.

Getting proper verification for bad beats will be a bitch.

Btw whats the terms of period for insurance? Can i pay 100 to be insured for 1000 over a course of 10k hands, 100k hands, or forever in the event i get sucked out by 2 outer? Sounds +EV for me.

Normal insurance companies produce policies and payouts to cater for unfortunate events that may occur, though at a low probability, and maybe even not occuring at all during the entire term of insurance.

In poker, bad beats is a function of the nature of the game itself, and thus will occur over the course of time. Your insurance company will have a higher payout frequency in this case.

I think the only way this would work is on a per hand basis e.g. life games, playing insurance to hedge losses when all the money is in with cards to come. And the only way to actually profit is to offer the insurance payout similar to casino payouts, paying out at a EV much lower than theoretical EV.


and to correct a misnomer, suck outs for solid tight players dont necessarily take a long time for them to get even. It's just that they get their money in good more often than not, that suck outs occur more frequently, but in another perspective, their hands hold out much more frequently as well. Its a mathematical equilibrium.
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Re: ?New business proposal?-Poker insurance agst bad beats

Postby Lo0o0o0n » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:51 am

vaevictis wrote:Interesting.

Getting proper verification for bad beats will be a bitch.

Btw whats the terms of period for insurance? Can i pay 100 to be insured for 1000 over a course of 10k hands, 100k hands, or forever in the event i get sucked out by 2 outer? Sounds +EV for me.

Normal insurance companies produce policies and payouts to cater for unfortunate events that may occur, though at a low probability, and maybe even not occuring at all during the entire term of insurance.

In poker, bad beats is a function of the nature of the game itself, and thus will occur over the course of time. Your insurance company will have a higher payout frequency in this case.

I think the only way this would work is on a per hand basis e.g. life games, playing insurance to hedge losses when all the money is in with cards to come. And the only way to actually profit is to offer the insurance payout similar to casino payouts, paying out at a EV much lower than theoretical EV.


and to correct a misnomer, suck outs for solid tight players dont necessarily take a long time for them to get even. It's just that they get their money in good more often than not, that suck outs occur more frequently, but in another perspective, their hands hold out much more frequently as well. Its a mathematical equilibrium.


yehz...verification will be a prob i guess...to cater to the online world...probably i was thinking can work with the poker websites to send the hand history over to prevent the players frm fraudulently modifying their hand histories for bogus claims...of course...live games this can be done easier...

yehz then later on i was thinking also...ALOT of pple will go agst this la...as it will slow down the game for one...like if 2 players are all in after the flop with an overpair agst an underpair...then the choice for insurance will slow the game down...and also...i guess this will be taking out an essential component of poker..bad beats...

still...i guess maybe wif some thought and more ideas...this may work out...haa

thx Les..

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Re: ?New business proposal?-Poker insurance agst bad beats

Postby necrohavoc » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:21 am

hmm the way i've been running recently ...i think my premium is quite high
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Re: ?New business proposal?-Poker insurance agst bad beats

Postby newbie » Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:55 am

erique, i'm pretty sure they only insure agst bad beats, not bad plays..
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Re: ?New business proposal?-Poker insurance agst bad beats

Postby necrohavoc » Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:29 am

well i didn't want to emphasize that .. might easily be construed as a cheap shot against Nicefingers
:D
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