River at 20NL, shove or fold?

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River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby airconman » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:09 pm

This was versus a standard 21/18 tag on ipoker, nothing too crazy from him yet.

My image had been pretty tight so far, although i had been squeezing pretty liberally so far. 110BB stacks at 20NL.

Villain raises 0.80c in cutoff, i call with position on button with A6dd.

flop comes K72 rainbow. Villain bets $1.40, i raise to $3.40. Villain calls.

Turn is a 7c, putting a FD on the board. Villain checks, i bet $5 into a $8.40 pot. Villain tanks for a long time, before calling.

River is the Jd. Villain instachecks. Whats my play here? Pot is at $18.40.

i have about $14 left behind. Right now the range i'm putting villain on is almost completely made up of scared 88-TT and KJs maybe KQ. He probably never folds a K imo. Shove or check back?
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby newbie » Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:40 am

i think you put him on the right range. i'd shove here but i think a lot depends on your perceived img. since you said you're perceived as tight, KJ is the min he can call you with.. shld've prob geared towards betting 7.30ish on turn to set up a river bluff shove? anyway i like this play.
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby felixleong » Wed Feb 18, 2009 5:58 pm

Firstly, thanks for sharing this hand at my corner. I love to put situations up and start looking deep into how the hand could be played, how different people who play it and analyzing it from different points.

Here are my comments, which would be personally be how I would be thinking on the table while being in your situation.

The villain is a standard TAG opening from CO, so his range pretty wide... maybe the top 20-30% of his hands. Stuffs like 22-AA, A2s+ A7+, K9+, QT+ along with some SCs. Some TAGs could play really tight on the CO/But like 20% hands, some very loose and open up a lot in late position for blind stealing, some games I open 40% at CO and 50% on the BUT.
So its good to look at your PT3 and see the stat "attempt to steal % at CO/But" for a good idea of his hand range..

Assuming the above hand range said, I would strongly want to fold A7s in this situation as my default play, but maybe a bit of calls once in a while for deception.
1) A7 is a weak hand that could be easily dominated by a TAG that likes to play strong aces
2) Having the button gives you good position, but the blinds has yet to act, calling too loosely in such situations are prone to squeeze plays from the blinds since both you 2 hold so wide/weak hands that cannot call a 3bet.

FLOP
Flop play I actually side more towards flat calling and use my position. I would get to see if he bets again on the turn ( indicating a strong hand ), if he checks... I'm get to keep the pot small and try to check the hand down since there ain't serious draws. Remember its good to play a small pot with a small hand.

Sometimes I will mix up my play and take the aggressive route, raising the flop by 1/2 to 3/4 pot, probably $4-$4.50. I want to make it clear that I'm representing a decent hand like Top pair K/x or a set on such a dry board. If he calls my big raise I'm pretty sure I'm beat most of the time.

TURN
On the turn the 7 is a pretty good card and value betting seems cool, 1/2 pot to 2/3 seems decent.

RIVER
The river J is probably a neutral card not helping both side ranges at all or much, I would tend to use a suck bet ( 1/3 to 1/4 pot size ) to final extract value from a possible lone King pair or random 2pair.

Cheers ^_^

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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby newbie » Wed Feb 18, 2009 11:06 pm

dude he had Ad6d... air.....
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby bingzz » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:32 am

Yarh lorh Felix...
You posted drunk ah? lol.

Anyway, my thoughts on the hand is this,

Pre-flop:
[Ad] [7d] facing a raise from TAG on the CO I prefer folding but call sometimes and hope for a diamond flop or a draw because you'd be highly likely dominated. If an A comes on the flop you're gonna have trouble playing the hand.

Flop:
Villain raised almost pot size, do you have any previous reads on this? Are his c-bets always near pot size? If they are, I'd tend to raise to test his c-bet on a dry flop like this. But if his nearpotsize c-bets means strength, I'd fold without a draw and not a single pair. A 20/18 TAG likely doesn't raise with KJo even in CO. Maybe KJs but I think seldom. Highly likely KQ+. Also without a read I tend to fold.

Turn:
Villain checks here, I'd go for check/fold. He's not calling with air, and he's waiting for you to raise.
If you do raise, and he calls, it's hard to put him on a draw. Probably KQ+ or A7s though unlikely as it may be.

River:
He checks after calling your raise. The question here now is "What do you think you have been representing so far?".
I think you're representing an A7 here testing the villain's c-bet on the flop. On the river, shove and pray he doesn't call.

Quite a -EV play mostly. At micro stakes, just play ABC poker and in this case fold the flop if not pre-flop.
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby airconman » Thu Feb 19, 2009 7:06 am

Haha i think it was a pretty -EV play overall, but he had been cbetting tons of dry flops so i wanted to play back against him with position, when he called the flop and check called the turn, i really felt his hand was a middling-sort of stubborn pocketpair that didn't want to fold. End result was i bluff shoved the river and he folded fairly quickly. Ship the A high!

The more i think about it, i think my line is iffy in the way that i'm again polarizing myself to either a boat, trip 7s or complete air, and a good player probably picks up on that. My value range is so thin that he might just choose to call with just about any pair there, plus my flop raise betsizing was kind of fishy. Was just hoping to play off my tight image at that point and hopefully he'd give me enough credit to fold TT or even KTs in that spot.

Felix: thanks for the lengthy analysis, definitely going to note the preflop points that you raised. I had a fairly loose passive preflop table that had a low 3 betting percentage, esp the players in the blinds, so i felt calling with A6dd on the button could be profitable esp if the blinds choose to call and create a multiway pot. In more aggro tables i'd be more apt to just 3 bet the guy straightaway or fold rather than call and risk getting squeezed by the BB's J9s and finding myself in an icky spot.

I think you misread my hand as A7s, which would give me trip 7s rather than A6dd which is pure air. That being said, i would love to hear your thoughts on the hand being played as a bluff rather than for value.

I think floating the flop and check raising both have their merits, in retrospect floating was probably the better play, rather than checkraising to such a fishy betsize. =X Would you say that my range for value check raising the flop is so narrow (22, 77, KJ+) that it exposes my hand too easily as a bluff? Maybe a float would be more credible in repping Kx and trip 7s on the turn rather than a flop checkraise? Thanks in advance. =)
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby felixleong » Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:31 am

Oh paisei paisei, so sorry I came from a long and tiring badminton session so I only quickly read through and fast fast write a reply.
should be A6s, i saw wrongly~

FLOP
Auto fold to cbet, I do not like to float on such a dry board. also not +EV to bluff raise here, I would only bluff raise if the board is like paired like 448 or straight or flushed.
As the situation happened, his call on the dry flop really means a made hand.

TURN
Probably check to can a free draw to my Ace, I'm in a check-fold mode now. I would only fire again with this air if I know well that my opponent
1) on a draw
2) hold a weak pair
3) just folds too much or timid

As probably only 2) can be a little true, I do not think this is a good spot to bluff

RIVER
Give it up
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby felixleong » Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:34 am

btw if you are playing on PS or FT, feel free to post the entire hand history here , the format is easier to read hehe.
But maybe just remove villain's final hand so that we can try to analyze down what he really had in the end, then also quite fun hehehe
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby newbie » Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:41 pm

you're right, your line polarises between boat and air but i think with a good turn bet to set up a river shove, he wont call. although i agree that a good player might've picked up on why you bet again on the turn..
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby airconman » Fri Feb 20, 2009 2:49 pm

Felix: I'm curious, when you say autofold to cbet on such a dry flop (K72r the most classic liao lol) is the more pertinent reason because i cannot represent anything if i float/raise or is it because he most likely has a made hand to bet such a dry flop? Also, when you say straight/flushed boards are better for check raising, is this because we can represent both draws and made hands in our range and successfully barrel scare cards on turn compared to dry boards where we can only represent a narrow range of made hands?

If i have the read on the player that hes just blindly cbetting flops with a very high cbet percentage when hes the pfr, does this change anything and make a raise more +ev? Personally, my own playstyle is that when i see an uncoordinated rainbow board, i'm likely to just cbet with air because its unlikely villian has anything to call me down with. Yet, when i get raised, i have the huge leak of wanting to reraise back because i get the feeling that villian might be making a move. Its so hard to give the guy credit when his range is so narrow! Also, playing dry flops (paired, rainbow boards as well) is a concept i don't really understand well, so it'd be great if you could discuss some of the merits and drawbacks of simply checkfolding, or raising/floating with air to outplay and for balancing ranges. Thanks!
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby felixleong » Fri Feb 20, 2009 8:58 pm

Oh cause hor for me the flop texture is very important in relation to the hand ranges of both side and the equity. Like we know that a hand like AKs has a 30% to hit a pair better on the flop, same goes for any unpaired hand about that percentage.
But when facing a paired board like 77J the chances of your opponent linking with it is much less, for further discussion about flop texture and cbet feel free to read my post at viewtopic.php?f=65&t=1301

As for boards that straightens ( 9TJ ) or flushes ( 3 hearts ), the chances of your opponent linking to it is also lower.
Like him having 78,QK or the other 2 hearts is very low, about 1% rounded up. This creates a situation where both sides usually do not have much and the 1st to bets usually takes the pot down on such threatening boards.

Dry boards are pretty straight forward, as the action goes along like a board of K72 the hands that are represented are pretty obvious. Like 2 TAG fighting around this board the common match ups are KA,KQ,KJ,77,22 ~ thats all! which is very narrow
as compared to a coordinated board like KcQc4s, which gives a lot more flush draw,straightdraw possibilities into the ranges.

When there are more possibilities on a board like 8s9s4c it creates opportunities to represent more hands~
Example a TAG cbets QQ on the flop, you flat call with an unknown wide range.
There will be many bad turn cards which you could bluff him off, any Ace, any King, 7, T and any spade gives him a lot of pressure and this amplies if you have position and seeing his turn check (weakness, uncertain that he now has the best hand). This gives you more room for bluffing .
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby felixleong » Fri Feb 20, 2009 9:04 pm

Generally raising a cbet with air is -EV, he is already represent strength and the only way he will fold is that he has no draws and totally no link to board. It is more wise to make use of your position to take down pot with air when your opponent has shown weakness ( flop or turn checks ), this usually comes true when they act 1st.

Generally good plays Cbet 50-70% of the time with is top pair + and heavy draws , mixing in just a little air cbet. Its very hard to really determine which are complete air on their size so it usually good to think of their hand ranges rather then thinking if they have something or air.

Players that cbet a lot , example 80-100% are mostly those loose goosey fishes, who also tend to be sticky or action pact postflop. Just use raw strength to punish them ^_^
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Re: River at 20NL, shove or fold?

Postby Brasstal » Sat Feb 21, 2009 4:46 am

i bet turn i would shove river.

Yes your range is right, most probably there unless he's v sophisticated to check a Full house here although i think thats like 2-5% chance.

I would shove it in since i already set up this play...

of course unless you put him on a range where you have showdown value with the Ace (which i highly doubt it).

Pretty straight forward shove... no point doing a post-oak here since you only have $14 left and pot's $20... You could try doing a $10 bet.

But then again if in your opinion he is not folding a King, maybe you could give up and just check here and save the $14... Really depends . . . if from the play you reckon he has a K (which he isn't folding) maybe 40% of the time and other Pocket Pairs 60% of the time, shoving here is a pretty break even play.. if its a higher probability he has a K (Which in your opinion he cant fold) then just a check down would do... but IMO I wouldnt have set up the bluff then...

Haha hope its helpful just my 2 cents worth.
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