odds of this happening?

Anything poker-related, and which doesn't fit into other forum categories

odds of this happening?

Postby cianopher » Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:58 pm

Image


hahahaha
User avatar
cianopher
Shark
 
Posts: 315
Joined: Sat May 23, 2009 9:54 pm
Medals: 5
Macau Cup Participant (1) Poker Face (1) Good Seller (3)

Re: odds of this happening?

Postby chenghao » Tue Jun 02, 2009 1:45 am

Simple odds assuming 2 hands playing , unknown hole cards.

the odds are 1/ (48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44) = 1/(205476480)
=0.000000005 , 0000005 %

the odds of such a thing happening indepedant of the suit = 4 / (48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44) = 4/(205476480)
= an increased chance of 000002 %
User avatar
chenghao
Great White Shark
 
Posts: 855
Joined: Tue May 26, 2009 10:21 pm
Medals: 3
Chatterbox - Bigga Mouth~ (1) Helpful Kaki (1) Good Seller (1)

Re: odds of this happening?

Postby BLKH » Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:02 pm

joke
Last edited by BLKH on Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
BLKH
New Fish
 
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:46 am

Re: odds of this happening?

Postby BLKH » Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:05 pm

chenghao wrote:Simple odds assuming 2 hands playing , unknown hole cards.

the odds are 1/ (48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44) = 1/(205476480)
=0.000000005 , 0000005 %

the odds of such a thing happening indepedant of the suit = 4 / (48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44) = 4/(205476480)
= an increased chance of 000002 %


I bet u lose all the time online.

considering the 1st card to be a 5 to a 10
48/48 * 4/47 * 3/46 * 2/45 * 1/44

its only 0.00056%

don mislead others
BLKH
New Fish
 
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:46 am

Pokerkaki Ads

Postby Pokerkaki Ads

Pokerkaki Ads
Shameless Advertising to keep this site alive

Re: odds of this happening?

Postby cianopher » Tue Jun 02, 2009 1:37 pm

haha...well its good thing its a split pot :D
User avatar
cianopher
Shark
 
Posts: 315
Joined: Sat May 23, 2009 9:54 pm
Medals: 5
Macau Cup Participant (1) Poker Face (1) Good Seller (3)

Re: odds of this happening?

Postby slkia » Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:25 pm

BLKH wrote:
chenghao wrote:Simple odds assuming 2 hands playing , unknown hole cards.

the odds are 1/ (48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44) = 1/(205476480)
=0.000000005 , 0000005 %

the odds of such a thing happening indepedant of the suit = 4 / (48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44) = 4/(205476480)
= an increased chance of 000002 %


I bet u lose all the time online.

considering the 1st card to be a 5 to a 10
48/48 * 4/47 * 3/46 * 2/45 * 1/44

its only 0.00056%

don mislead others


its not 0.00056%

1) 1st card being 5 or 10 is not 48/48 its 2/48

2) any card can make a straight flush not only 5/10 with 1st card.

assumptions: royal flush is encompassed, we are looking at specific suit (so as to allow for a valid comparision with 1st reply)

if 1st card is 2/K, cards available on 2nd draw to make the hand will be 5 only-------a
if 1st card is 3/Q, cards available on 2nd draw to make the hand will be 6 only------b
if 1st card is 4/J, cards available on 2nd draw to make the hand will be 7 only------c
if 1st card is 5 to 10 or A, cards available on 2nd draw to make the hand will be 8-----d

looking at scenario d,
probability is 7/48 1st card 5 to 10 or A.....
2nd card probability is 8/47

if 2nd card is difference of 4 with 1st card (i.e. 1st card - 2nd card value = absolute value of 4) then the 3rd card probability will be 3/46 the 4th = 2/45 n the 5th = 1/44

if the 2nd card is difference of 3 with 1st card then the 3rd card can have a probability of 4/46 which then brings different probabilities for the 4th card depending on wat the 3rd card is....if its a card dats in between the 1st n 2nd in value it will be 3/45 and if the 4th is in between again it will be 2/44 for the 5th implying an open-ended draw

if the 3rd card is not within the value of the 1st n 2nd card, the draw will end up in a gut shot draw with lower probability......

im too lazy to calculate everything cos there are sites on the net afterall dat gives u exact probability of straight flush draw....im just giving the mechanics to it....

the easier way to see it will be....for example....

1st card is K....i can only make a straight flush with A, Q J 10, 9 as 2nd card.....

if 1st card is 6, i can make straight flush if 2nd card is 2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10

if 1st card is 6 n 2nd is 10 only running cards of any order of 7,8,9 will make straight flush

if 1st card is 6 n 2nd card is 9, 3rd card can be 5,7,8,10

if 1st cards is 6 2nd card is 9 and 3rd card is 5 or 10, last 2 cards must be 7,8,

if 1st card is 6 2nd card is 9 3rd card is 7, 4th card can be 5,8,10

if 4th card is 8 last card can be 5 or 10.....if 4th card is 5 or 10 last card have to be 8.....(this is the gut shot/open ended thing i was refering to)
slkia
Challenge Poker Player
 
Posts: 107
Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:40 pm
Medals: 8
Long Jie Participant (2) Genting Poker Tournament (2) Macau Cup Participant (1) APPT Participant (1) Chatterbox - Bigga Mouth~ (1) Helpful Kaki (1)

Re: odds of this happening?

Postby slkia » Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:39 pm

BLKH wrote:
chenghao wrote:Simple odds assuming 2 hands playing , unknown hole cards.

the odds are 1/ (48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44) = 1/(205476480)
=0.000000005 , 0000005 %

the odds of such a thing happening indepedant of the suit = 4 / (48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44) = 4/(205476480)
= an increased chance of 000002 %


I bet u lose all the time online.

considering the 1st card to be a 5 to a 10
48/48 * 4/47 * 3/46 * 2/45 * 1/44

its only 0.00056%

don mislead others


i sumhow dont tink that the previous poster whom u quoted had the intention of misleading anyone....

but.....if u were to tink that expressing one's views and attempting to share info dat is incorrect is in fact an intention to mislead....then u sir are in that category as well....

just becos u know that all straights have to encompass a 5 or 10 doesnt mean that u can sound intelligent by adding that fact into an equation that makes no sense at all....

pls at least be in a position where u are protected from rebuttals if u wish to be mean.

i dunno how good u tink u are at poker......at poker i may be a fish/donkey....but maths is a different area....try me....
slkia
Challenge Poker Player
 
Posts: 107
Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:40 pm
Medals: 8
Long Jie Participant (2) Genting Poker Tournament (2) Macau Cup Participant (1) APPT Participant (1) Chatterbox - Bigga Mouth~ (1) Helpful Kaki (1)

Re: odds of this happening?

Postby chenghao » Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:56 pm

My initial mention was the chance of any one hand , in a simple to understand manner i think. didn't expect it to generate such strong emotions.
lets begin with the chance of a straight flush

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability
Straight flush — Each straight flush is uniquely determined by its highest ranking card; and these ranks go from 5 (A-2-3-4-5) up to A (10-J-Q-K-A) in each of the 4 suits. Thus, the total number of straight flushes is:
{10 \choose 1}{4 \choose 1} = 40
with 40 being the total number of types of straight flushes available , 10 for each suit.(inclusive of royal)

with [9h] [7h] [Kh] [2d] out of action, ( due to them being on both sides's hands )

this take away a few of these straight flushes out there.
the spade and club series are unaffected , with 10 sets of straight flushes shared among them.

the diamond series has 2 sets of straight flushes taken out.
[Ad] to [5d] and [2d] to [6d]
Diamond has 8 sets of straight flush left.

the heart series , a couple is taken out of action
As the result needs to be shared among both players , the only remaining sets available are [Ah] - [5h] , [2h] - [6h]
Heart has 2 sets of straight flush left.

so instead of a total of 40 straight flush , there are 10 from club , 10 from spade , 8 from diamond , 2 from hearts.

so its a total of 30 possible selection out of 2,598,960 hands. = 0.000011543 or 0.0011543 % chance assuming both set of hole cards are known.

This is assuming order is not taken into consideration.

if order is taken into consideration , then you can multiply the odds by 1 / ( 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)

Disclaimer : i am thinking from permutation and combinations point of view from statistics.
i am not here to challenge as this thread i view as just a mind teaser.
i am practically a fish in poker , do invite me over to donate $$ to you
User avatar
chenghao
Great White Shark
 
Posts: 855
Joined: Tue May 26, 2009 10:21 pm
Medals: 3
Chatterbox - Bigga Mouth~ (1) Helpful Kaki (1) Good Seller (1)

Re: odds of this happening?

Postby slkia » Wed Jun 03, 2009 6:56 pm

chenghao wrote:My initial mention was the chance of any one hand , in a simple to understand manner i think. didn't expect it to generate such strong emotions.
lets begin with the chance of a straight flush

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability
Straight flush — Each straight flush is uniquely determined by its highest ranking card; and these ranks go from 5 (A-2-3-4-5) up to A (10-J-Q-K-A) in each of the 4 suits. Thus, the total number of straight flushes is:
{10 \choose 1}{4 \choose 1} = 40
with 40 being the total number of types of straight flushes available , 10 for each suit.(inclusive of royal)

with [9h] [7h] [Kh] [2d] out of action, ( due to them being on both sides's hands )

this take away a few of these straight flushes out there.
the spade and club series are unaffected , with 10 sets of straight flushes shared among them.

the diamond series has 2 sets of straight flushes taken out.
[Ad] to [5d] and [2d] to [6d]
Diamond has 8 sets of straight flush left.

the heart series , a couple is taken out of action
As the result needs to be shared among both players , the only remaining sets available are [Ah] - [5h] , [2h] - [6h]
Heart has 2 sets of straight flush left.

so instead of a total of 40 straight flush , there are 10 from club , 10 from spade , 8 from diamond , 2 from hearts.

so its a total of 30 possible selection out of 2,598,960 hands. = 0.000011543 or 0.0011543 % chance assuming both set of hole cards are known.

This is assuming order is not taken into consideration.

if order is taken into consideration , then you can multiply the odds by 1 / ( 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)

Disclaimer : i am thinking from permutation and combinations point of view from statistics.
i am not here to challenge as this thread i view as just a mind teaser.
i am practically a fish in poker , do invite me over to donate $$ to you


nice angle...
slkia
Challenge Poker Player
 
Posts: 107
Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:40 pm
Medals: 8
Long Jie Participant (2) Genting Poker Tournament (2) Macau Cup Participant (1) APPT Participant (1) Chatterbox - Bigga Mouth~ (1) Helpful Kaki (1)


Return to General Poker Chat

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

 

Recent Posts

Subscribe to RSS headline updates from:
Powered by FeedBurner

Site

Subscribe to RSS headline updates from:
Powered by FeedBurner




cron