Chain Of Thought Example

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Chain Of Thought Example

Postby felixleong » Tue Nov 20, 2007 8:21 pm

i just wrote this in my blog
i think it will be interesting to let u guys here see an example of how important and powerful chain of thought is in NL holdem

My current image: ROCK playing only like 5% of my hands!!!!
villian is unknown

try guessing what are we thinkin while u readhehehe
then scroll right bottom

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $154.70
MP1: $146.30
FelixLeong (MP2): $127.65
CO: $22.50
BTN: $119.25
SB: $30.60
BB: $45
UTG: $108.65
UTG+1: $100.35

Pre-Flop: Qd Kc dealt to FelixLeong (MP2)
4 folds, FelixLeong raises to $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) 4h 2h Th (2 Players)
BB checks, FelixLeong checks

Turn: ($8.50) Ts (2 Players)
BB checks, FelixLeong bets $8, BB calls $8

River: ($24.50) Jc (2 Players)
BB checks, FelixLeong bets $23, BB calls $23

Results: $70.50 Pot ($3 Rake)
FelixLeong showed Qd Kc (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$35 NET)
BB showed 9d 9s (two pair, Tens and Nines) and WON $67.50 (+$32.50 NET)

very good call by my opponent , he must had been thinking 1 level higher then me
chain of thought replay
Level 0 - I have QK
Level 1 - He call my PF R ,so he is probably small/mid pair or 2 high cards
Level 2 - I am very tight , so probaly high cards or high/mid pair, the T or J might have helped me (average small stakes thought level)
Level 3 - He looks weak checking , i will big bet bluff since he puts me on high cards (My at moment thought level)
Level 4 - He knows that i look weak after checking, this river must be a bluff since he knows i puts him on high cards( at momement opponent thought level)

Good Play ! 100NL players are usually level 1 to 2 thinkers
i beat them by thinking till level 3
but i got beat this time cause someone level 4 think me!!
Poker is amazing eh?? ^_^

when u watch stuff like HIGH STAKES POKER

Pro Vs Pro , chain of thought battle can go as high as level 5 and above
i wouldnt be suprised if phil ivey vs patrick antonius is as high as level 7-10 thoughts

This can drive people crazy!!! hahaha
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Re: Chain Of Thought Example

Postby suitedpairs29 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 10:45 am


I wouldnt give the villain here credit too much for higher level thinking

I dont know if its the same thing but I would apply simple logic and would end up at the same result as villain

I have 9s and call raise in BB.

Flop comes ten high with 2 hearts and I have to assume I have the best hand. I dont want to be raised off the best hand so I check, and so does preflop raiser

The turn pairs the Ten and I know for sure that I am good but I still wont go crazy so I check. Raiser bets and I flat

River is another over card. Do I necessarily have to give credit to raiser for a Jack? No. I have been check calling all the way and the ten pairing should have scared raiser, instead he represents the Jack. So he either has a monster or missed completely

Come to think of it, maybe this is higher level thinking, but maybe just on the river. The flop and turn plays were pretty standard in my opinion
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Re: Chain Of Thought Example

Postby felixleong » Wed Nov 21, 2007 2:27 pm

yeah i guess u are right
i thought about it again
i think maybe i am wrong , his level of thinking maybe only at level 1
he thinks his 99 is good and willing to call down big bets
he does care what i have nor what i am trying to represent on the river.

maybe in the future i'll try to look for a better example
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Re: Chain Of Thought Example

Postby ohboy » Wed Nov 21, 2007 4:51 pm

higher levels of thought are often complex games of rock scissors and paper.

Over thinking often happens when you try to outthink a simple opponent. Where rock would have easily crushed his scissors, you decide instead to go for the paper that crushes rock, and end up getting schooled by his scissors.

The first step to reading someone is not to reach for the most complicated thought process you can find, but to determine his level of involvement in the mindgame department.

lvl 7 thinking that you mention of phil's is useless against me if the only thing i'm thinking of are my own 2 cards(most basic). He's always better off just being exactly one step ahead of me.

I'm not making this up by the way.
It happens everyday, and not just in poker.
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Re: Chain Of Thought Example

Postby felixleong » Wed Nov 21, 2007 10:05 pm

yA lor , i often "mind fuck" myself
always over think too much when the answer very simple infront of me liao

i think the hardest to read are girls
sometimes i can read my opponent's hands sooo welll
but when it comes to BGR and girls thoughts... man am i totally clueless... LOL
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Re: Chain Of Thought Example

Postby bingzz » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:58 pm

it's true eh.

Sometimes really think too much, but somehow I still believe that thinking too much is better than thinking too simply.
Most of the times when we think about the play at the table, we look at things like position, bet sizing, hand ranges, number of players in the pot, pot odds, the blinds sizes, the M and so on. You calculate and you think deep into the further levels.

But at times, what we think may still not add up because our opponents may not be thinking at this level and might be doing things that are not as logical. And we will often lose to hands that we thought we would have easily beaten.

Despite the possibility of disastrous results, we still need to think deeply even if we are essentially mind fooking ourselves because that's the only way we can improve. If an opponent is being noobish, making illogical bets, then we need to widen his hand range and use it to our advantage, learn their style and remember it. Especially when we play in lower stakes, these players are pretty prevalent. They are not very good at the game and they disregard the value of the low stakes buy-in.

What do you guys think will be the best approach to the chain of thoughts in such games?

I personally have a few ideas.

Widen the hand ranges of players in general.
Give more credit to their raise.
Beware of bluffing, they will call a big bet even with marginal hands as their ability to think at the game is weak.

Any other thoughts?
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Re: Chain Of Thought Example

Postby vaevictis » Fri Sep 12, 2008 4:41 pm

different levels of thinking is just a general concept that explains how to make the most EV move given the way hero and villian perceives each other.

I don't think we should assign players and caterogories them as level 1 , 2 or 3 etc etc. Players with level 1 thinking can have a different playing style all together.

i think whats important is understanding the ranges of villians action in all streets, through observation in showdown hands. Understand his value betting range spots on certain boards, understand his check-calling range/floating range etc etc.

Don't make poker more complicated than it really is...Focus on balancing your ranges and on villians ranges more.
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Re: Chain Of Thought Example

Postby newbie » Sat Sep 13, 2008 8:18 pm

range is not the only impt thing here i feel. Playing style is also paramount. Is he a hero caller? Big time bluffer? Thin value bettor? etc.

Sometimes even if you pinpoint villain's range accurately, his actions might differ from what you expect of him. I believe in the poker scene, we call it 'tendencies'.
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Re: Chain Of Thought Example

Postby 8ivan8 » Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:02 am

Hey Felix,

I think the line that ure taking is really really weak and u played the hand in a manner which is -EV.
u raise KQ and get called by BB
Flop is monotone 2,4,10
The correct line in my opinion is to C bet close to pot (85%)in the hope of taking it down there. Cos if the opponent bets out on the turn, then u fold to him without even contesting for the pot.
If u get called and the board pairs the T, u may might as well check/fold and give up as whatever called u on the flop will most likely call u on the turn. U r not really representing any thing in ure example unless of cos u really have the flush or the T, then betting for value will be the correct play. Furthermore with ure tight image, the opponent will play more str8forward postflop as he is OOP.
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Re: Chain Of Thought Example

Postby felixleong » Sat Mar 14, 2009 12:05 pm

LOL this hand so long ago le , 2007 hand leh wahaha
Yeah i guess I was pretty fishy then, played it really bad ~ thanks for the feedback guys hehe ^_^
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