Views on this hand

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Views on this hand

Postby Froggy » Fri Oct 16, 2009 1:07 am

Full Tilt Poker Game #15355031038: Table Mincey - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:59:54 ET - 2009/10/15
Seat 1: bulterier ($13.15)
Seat 2: mrebelo ($1.70)
Seat 3: VesIv ($9.79)
Seat 4: EmoFrog ($10.18)
Seat 5: Horron ($2)
Seat 6: Juhan K ($5.71)
Seat 7: Hugh Glossop ($6.47)
Seat 8: Driv3r90 ($1.75)
Seat 9: runnerpkr ($0), is sitting out
EmoFrog posts the small blind of $0.05
Horron posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to EmoFrog [Ah Jh]
Juhan K folds
Hugh Glossop calls $0.10
Driv3r90 folds
bulterier folds
mrebelo folds
VesIv folds
runnerpkr adds $3
EmoFrog raises to $0.40
Horron folds
runnerpkr has returned
Hugh Glossop calls $0.30
*** FLOP *** [Ad 4d Js]
EmoFrog bets $0.70
Hugh Glossop calls $0.70
*** TURN *** [Ad 4d Js] [Tc]
EmoFrog bets $2.30
Hugh Glossop raises to $5.37, and is all in
EmoFrog ???
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby meltan87 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:16 am

at best, he had K Qd, hit the str.
maybe, pocket 10s, wanted to try for runner str and hit the freaking set.
either way, pay to see? lol
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby chenghao » Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:48 am

What have you observed of him so far? what is his range to call 3 x bb on button ? does he play gut shot ? does he shove with 2 pairs ? is he a bluffy / spewy type of player , or a straight forward player ? 5.37 is overbetting the pot. and its hard to let go of top 2 pair when it apears to be a gut shot.

Possible ranges that benefits from T:

Hands you beat
AT( 6 combinations) [Ac] [As] [Ts] [Th] [Td]
JT ( 6 combinations) [Jd] [Js] [Ts] [Th] [Td]
4T ( 9 combinations ) [4s] [4h] [4c] [Ts] [Th] [Td]
Assuming he play 4 T

Hands that got you beat
KQ( 16 combinations)
PocT (3 combinations )
Poc4 ( 3combinations ) ( don't really benefit from T , slow playing to represent T )
PocJ ( 3 combinations ) ( don't really benefit from T , slow playing to represent T )

(1)You can beat 21 combinations , you lose to 25 combinations . if he plays hands like 4 T
(2)You can beat 12 combinations , lose to 25 if he doesn't play hands like 4 T

Pot so far2.35 + 2.30 = $ 4.60

he bets $5.37 into a $4.60 pot so its another 3.07 for you to call.
if he the straight forward type of player , you should fold , cos of scenario (2)
if his a bluffy type of player , you should call cos of (1)
He might also have AJ but you draw with that so never consider it.

My gut feel is his got KQ exactly on FD but heng heng tio a 10 so he got straight with Flush redraw
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby chenghao » Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:04 pm

The above assumes that he thinks he got the best hand bcos of 10 club, thats why he shove to get the most value out from you.

questioning the assumption above, why else would he shove?

he is putting you on a flush draw and wishes to price you out of a FD
his trying to float you. ( given his stack size , doesn't seem likely any more )
he thinks his slow playing his A4 and puts you on AQ AK etc
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby Froggy » Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:44 pm

very nice insight and detailed analysis chenghao. however we do not have the luxury of time during online play :)

i'm gonna keep the mystery for a little while more. some more info, my note on him is "high bluffing freq, likes to play dominated hands oop, likes to limp>call raise"


i actually put him on a dominated hand that isnt good enuf to bring for a raise, yet looks "nice" to him. something like suited Ace rags, small-med PP, 2 picture cards
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby meltan87 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:28 pm

KQ is 2 pic cards, so is pocket 10 a small-med PP...

well enough speculation already!
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby Froggy » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:10 am

yep KQo sadly, for the nut straight. i made the call. was it a bad call?
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby chenghao » Sat Oct 17, 2009 10:41 am

he probably thinks you made it cheap for him to draw gutshot.

$0.70 to win $0.7 you bet , $0.95 in the pot , and $5.37 behind both of you ( as you stack him )

he throw $0.7 to try to win $0.7 + 0.95 + 5.37 = $7.02

0.7 : 7.02 is like 1:10
the chance to chase a gutshot for a straight on the flop is 4 x 4 = 16 %

if u overbet the pot a bit , in the long run its negative ev for him to call

still i would call with top two pair as there is a full house redraw and in the long run you can add a pointer that he likes to draw gutshot and should price him out of a gutshot in the future ( meta game)
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby Mydral » Sun Oct 25, 2009 8:38 am

"still i would call with top two pair as there is a full house redraw and in the long run you can add a pointer that he likes to draw gutshot and should price him out of a gutshot in the future ( meta game)"

Its Nl10.. there is no meta game.
Don't over analyse hands on that limit... the game is still too simplistic there.

Btw the flop bet amount is perfectly fine. He has no odds to call for the gutshot... all those implied odds calculations are wrong since villain does not know our hand and our range is wider then A. Hence he might hit turn and we just check behind, fold to river bet in a lot of cases.

Overbetting the pot = -EV at all times (better hands will take your money, weaker hands will fold), except meta game on higher limits and even there its usually not used.
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby Froggy » Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:03 pm

what is meta game?
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby DonkeyKong » Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:49 pm

if he knows you have 2 pairs up, and will actually stack you if he hits his gutter 10 on the turn, he is 41:4 or 10.25:1 dog, so it seems like he just made a very small mistake for calling if he can win $7.02 by calling $0.70. However, he has to know that you still have 4 outs to hit a full house on the river or 40:4 (10:1) odds. so his expectation is

expectation of no A or J on the river = 40/44 x $7.02 = $6.38
expectation of an A or J on the river = 4/44 X - $5.37 = -$0.49

Therefore his expectation for hitting his gutter ten = $6.38 - $0.49 = $5.89
If he pays $0.70 to win $5.89 on a 10.25:1 long shot, it seems like he is making a -EV $1 plus mistake.
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby Mydral » Wed Nov 18, 2009 4:10 pm

Froggy wrote:what is meta game?


Meta game is a more advanced poker. It is basically purely playing your opponent and the board.
Its a bit hard to explain till you do it (do not do it on NL10 or something, it will never work). Basically you figure out your opponents tendencies and are aware of what he thinks about you, and you start exploiting this.
You will see this a lot in HU matches.

Like if I know my opponent floats me flop but folds to turn bet I will second barrel turn a lot of times. The moment he adjusts I will re-adjust. You just have to stay a step ahead of your opponents and you can beat them more easily.
Other thing is if your opponet knows you fold to pressure, re-adjust and call more lightly, like if flush completes.. check to him on purpose and call his bet with TP or something (be sure you have folded at similar situations earlier and be sure opponents notice).

In live games it is the easiest thing ever for example. You get one strong hand to showdown and win it. Immidiatly people give you respect for being tight and what not. So switch immidiatly and become lose and barrel more IP. Once they see this, change your game again. Most players will never catch on and won't have an idea what you do and whatnot.

The thing is though none of this exists on NL10.. because everyone only knows simple poker or worse, has no clue about post-flop play etc.
You just have to remember a few things:
they call with crap pre-flop, hence c-betting is effective IP till you meet resistance
they will chase draws.. so yeah even if u give them wrong outs and the FD completes, a lot of times they have it.
They are always loose/passive fish.. c/c a lot and what-not. The minute he c/r you or raises you or shows any aggression whatsoever he has TP or better.

Easy game... real poker begins NL30 and NL50 (more on the NL50 side) and there you can try meta-game vs other regs.
Micros are just... annoying, thats the best word haha.. oh and boring, unless you play like 6 tables or something. HU SnGs are still ok though :)
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby acehigh » Fri Jan 22, 2010 11:58 am

as long as u know the probilities and in the long run the decisions will make you win more than you lose
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Re: Views on this hand

Postby xcaliblur » Fri Jan 22, 2010 9:04 pm

I would call definitely.

not many hands that can beat your hand- youd lose to a set and a straights. Lets look at straights first

Straights- The only possible straights in that scenario is a QK, but is it likely? I have no idea how that player plays, but he called 10 cents preflop and then called your raise- would he just call with a QK? I usually dont think so- and even if he did, at the flop there was an overcard (the Ace) and he only has a gutshot to a straight- would he call almsot a pot sized bet to a preflop raiser? If he did it was a pretty lose play since the T of diamonds could potentially complete a flush- giving him only 3 outs to the nuts. AND if he did have the nut straights would he all in at the turn?

Sounds very unlikely to me actually many factors go against him having a QK.

Now lets look at a set. This one is more likely than a QK. He might actually have pocket fours (was that the bottom card? cant remember). The only other possible sets are Tens, jacks and aces. I really dont think he had aces here, and itd be pretty stupid to just limp in with jacks preflop. Tens are possible i guess, but again, its hard to imagine NOT raising preflop with pocket tens, and then making a super loose call when the flop was AJ4 with 2 diamonds.... So imma going to rule that out too.

Pocket 4s are a real possibility- lots of ppl try to see the flop as cheaply as possible with small pocket pairs, and he might be waiting for you to be pot commited before going all in. Out of all the possible hands that have you beat id say pocket 4s are most likely.

But then id still have to call. Only because there are many other hands that he could all in with that you COULD actually beat... Maybe he had a JT? maybe AQ or JK? Maybe a Td and another diamond? A4? AT?

Id call and just pray he didnt have the pocket fours and if he did well thats just one of the scenarios where youd just hafta swallow your pride and lose your money. Very hard to fold when he raised all in and it cost you just that much extra.

Again, I have no idea how he or you play, and that would be a huge factor. He might all in with a flush and straight draw if youre a very tight player and he thinks he can get you to fold an ace. Or he might be one of those nutters who call the flop with a gutshot straight drraw..

Just my 2 cents- very curious as to what you actually did and what hand he had. Id call at the end..
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