Interesting live SnG situation.

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Interesting live SnG situation.

Postby jupzones » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:56 am

9 man SnG. Top 3 ITM. 50 buy in.

Starting Stack 200, blinds 1/2

blinds are 6/12 or, i have 220+ in my stack. villan is loose/limpy has 290+? 8 players left

im in late position TAG and pop it up to 60 with AcAh. villan flat calls and we're heads up.

flop comes Q 6c 8c.

villan insta shoves overbet 290 into 120 pot. i tank and fold. right or wrong? 8 players left, top 3 in the money

take into consideration i still had an average stack size and i folded to avoid playing a big pot with a healthy stack and early on.

I put him on KQCC, 79CC, ASQC, 10CJC.

best case is flush draw, which he's about 35% to hit, worst case is straight draw + flush drawt at least 50% to hit.

so i avoided the gamble.

right or wrong?















He had J10CC which is gutshot+flush draw, 13 outs, - Ac = 12 outs. about 45-50%
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Re: Interesting live SnG situation.

Postby chenghao » Mon Dec 28, 2009 11:55 am

First u need to ask yourself do you want to ITM or do you want the top prize ?

if u needed to Top prize , then this is an excellent chance to gamble .

if he had a set, over pair , tptk , etc , would he play the same way as this draw ?

you threw in 60 / 220 and leave 140 behind , what do you beat and what would he call PF and shove flop with ?

Using poker stove ,

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,920 games 0.005 secs 1,584,000 games/sec

Board: Qd 6c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.437% 22.44% 00.00% 1777 0.00 { KcQc, JcTc, 9c7c, AQo }
Hand 1: 77.563% 77.56% 00.00% 6143 0.00 { AcAh }


---

Insta call is too slow if you range him that way.


I would range him differently though , that range is too narrow that you probably know him very very well
He limps and he shoves , he limps with any 2 , will he shove with a flush / straight / set / TPTK ?
i would range this sort of gamblers to include all the other hands like

PF , any pair 22+ , 2 Facecards , 2 suited.

to shove on the flop , he probably has
pair - over pair , AA , KK
pair - set of Q , 6 , 8.

May have a pair in between Q and 8 , JJ , TT , 99.

2 facecards , the Queen hits , AQ , KQ , QJ , QT

2 suited = FD/ OESD , random 2 pair.
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Re: Interesting live SnG situation.

Postby Brasstal » Mon Dec 28, 2009 2:22 pm

good work using pokerstove it calculates the equity u have and really depends on the range you put villian on

if u say he is loose limpy then is he able to shove Bare Q with weak kicker? Poor players do that. But if he is a decent loose player who likes to play flops, would be doing a reverse by playing his 2 pair fast, knowing your style of playing only good hands or overpairs?

Anyway just take into consideration blind levels and compare the way the table is playing ; ie. are they easy to run over? If they are then perhaps, just perhaps folding and accumulating chips that way is better. However if they are a gambling bunch coupled with a bad structure, perhaps its a call as this might be one of the better situations you may encounter.


In your situation its a call for me. If he has a really strong hand he might want to get that "c-bet" out of you first. However being a loose/passive (limpy) player he at best would have 6 8 or Q 8 and your A A is not that far behind. Either that or you have him crushed if he has a single pair.

Oh well Chenghao explains that so clearly with Pokerstove =)
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