Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

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Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby chenghao » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:38 pm

Stacks & Stats
BB ($100.00) (34/4/0.7/32/321) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
SB ($100.00)
UTG ($100.00) (40/12/1.2/30/180) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
MP ($100.00)
CO ($100.00)
Hero ($100.00)

Preflop: Hero is BU with [Js] [Ts]
UTG calls $1.00, 1 fold, CO calls $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, [color=grey]1 fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($4.50) [Qh] [Ks] [4h] (4 players)
UTG checks, CO bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00, 1 fold, UTG calls $3.00

Turn: ($13.50) [Qh] [Ks] [4h] [2s] (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero...

How would you continue ? what is your reasoning ?
Last edited by chenghao on Mon Jun 28, 2010 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby AsiaPokerAcademy » Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:08 pm

Pre-flop I prefer to raise the button and build up a little pot. Then we can use our position throughout the hand to take down a big pot in situations like this

As played, I would definitely bet about 6 or 7 on the turn. Even if we face a big check-raise, we have plenty of outs and can use our position to gain more on the river. Obviously, if the check-raise is a huge overbet, we could fold.

It doesn't seem like our opponents are very strong though, I assume we will take down the pot. Most of their range containing K's and Q's would have raised pre-flop rather than open limped
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby keldraco » Mon Jun 28, 2010 3:40 pm

i feel that betting here wouldn't chase UTG out if he hit the flop or smaller hand pair or on a draw. CO might fold. i will still bet to try to get the pot. if there is 1 caller i'll be getting a good odds. if there is a check raise, i will call if the odds is good. since both check on the turn, there is a higher chance to check to showdown(maybe...). i'm still newbie, so these might be a fish way of thinking haha. anyway i'm putting myself on 14 outs.
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby AsiaPokerAcademy » Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:17 am

keldraco wrote:i feel that betting here wouldn't chase UTG out if he hit the flop or smaller hand pair or on a draw. CO might fold. i will still bet to try to get the pot .


Since the pot is currently small in comparison to our stack size, our motive is not only taking down the pot, but building the pot so that we can potentially win a huge pot when we get called and hit on the river! The combination of being able to take down the pot along with our high chances to improve when called make this a great spot to keep firing
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby chenghao » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:03 pm

This was the answer given :
Hero decided to limp the hand pre-flop. On the flop, he called the bet from CO with a clean 7 outs. On the turn, he picks up a 15-outer and everyone checks to him.

Hero now has the choice between a free card and a semi-bluff bet. However, the question is: with what would CO bet on the flop and check on the turn here? We know that the UTG has big problems with letting go of his hands. It's possible that CO only tried to steal the pot on the flop. He might also have a marginal draw, but he would probably fold a marginal pair most of the times.

It's hard to put UTG on a hand, and we can't know whether he would really fold a middle pair any way.

The 15 outs give us an excellent equity, but we don't have any showdown value yet. The profitability of a semi-bluff bet lies in its fold equity, which is probably too small in this case. We also have a great position to extract more value on the river if one of our draws is completed, which is why we should go for the free card rather than betting.

My preference would be to build the pot though.. they think its a + ev move to check the turn and get a freecard , i think if some spade other then 2 comes out like an A , semi bluffing at that point would be good as A is a scare card.
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby MJFX » Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:09 pm

Hand discussion has answer one meh? ;)

Murphy's Law always creeps up in poker, and if the worst could happen, it usually does!

Murphy says UTG has [As] [Qs] and CO has [Jh] [Th]

:o :o
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby chenghao » Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:31 pm

not say answer lar , but different school of thoughts

i prefer the line to build the pot on the turn thats why when i read
their thoughts i never thought of fold equity that way before
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby Froggy » Wed Jun 30, 2010 10:17 am

im totally with Mo here on this one. JTs is definitely a raising hand - heck anything is raise-able on the BTN.
With such a big draw vs limpers just make the pot as big as possible.

how i would have played it:
pre-flop: 2-3 limpers, i am on button = raise
flop: donk bet + 2 callers = raise
turn: check check = bet

pretty lots of chance to take it down without showdown here imho... plus you still ahve lots of outs if called

p.s. I think this scenario came from a live game right, sg live games are full of limping
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby chenghao » Wed Jun 30, 2010 11:50 am

Froggy wrote:im totally with Mo here on this one. JTs is definitely a raising hand - heck anything is raise-able on the BTN.
With such a big draw vs limpers just make the pot as big as possible.

how i would have played it:
pre-flop: 2-3 limpers, i am on button = raise
flop: donk bet + 2 callers = raise
turn: check check = bet

pretty lots of chance to take it down without showdown here imho... plus you still ahve lots of outs if called

p.s. I think this scenario came from a live game right, sg live games are full of limping

This scenario from poker strategy
Got stats one lar , how to record stats live ? use iphone issit :mrgreen:

(40/12/1.2/30/180) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
(34/4/0.7/32/321) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]

The line of reasoning if because the 2 players that is in the pot are probably fishes ( from their stats : their VPIP > twice their PFR )

If say you fire the turn , 2 callers , river you missed , you just built the pot for the fish to feed on . If they are regs , TAG LAG sLAG etc , i would build the pot and bet/fold the river if missed as they still can fold
Reasoning behind this adjustment :
one rule of thumb : Never bluff a fish/calling station !
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby xcaliblur » Wed Jun 30, 2010 2:29 pm

Personally i think decision here is alright either way. Whether or not hero bets on turn or just checks is fine and depends on a few factors. Most important of all would be what kind of players is he against? However, personally I would check the turn and get the free card.

A limp from UTG position from tight player might mean a monster hand and he could be slowplaying a set of Kings or Queens. Personally I would raise pre-flop on button with TJs because
1. Depending on how UTG and CO responds i can get some information on their hands
2. I might get them to fold pre-flop
3. I give the impression that I have a strong hand

The problem with betting the turn in this scenario is that its very hard for them to believe that you have much of a hand. If you have KQ, QQ, KK, KA, AQ you would definitely have raised on the button pre-flop. BEst case scenario is that you would likely only have one pair and with this hand betting on the turn when a 2 of spades comes out is a very suspicious move. Plus UTG might be slowplaying a monster like i was saying and make a monster reraise- forcing you to fold a free card that could make your draw.

Another point to consider is that with a player of some skill, there are only few reasons why he would limp UTG
1. Slowplaying a monster hoping someone would raise
2. suited connectors
3. Small pocket pair

Situation 2 and 3 would likely fold on that type of flop once CO bets, so it lends more strength that he has hand type 1. any hand of KA,KK, QQ, AA, or even AQ would unlikely fold to a turn bet.
Also not to forget that even with 15 outs, with only one card to come you are still a large underdog against even only one pair, and with 2 ppl with you in the pot it is likely that at least one of them will have the K or Q paired and will likely call you. This makes fold equity very small, as previous poster said, making it less profitable to bet. Remember, semi-bluffing is more profitable only if you have a strong chance of causing others to fold.

The argument of building the pot in case you hit a monster I would have to disagree on. Point being that you are an underdog in this scenario- this means that most times you will lose the pot, and making another bet on river if you miss is extremely risky IMO in this situation. So why not take the free card? If you make the draw on river, against someone with a pair K you are likely to still extract some value, especially being last to act on river. And if UTG is playing set Kings or Queens, you would likely still extract the maximum once you hit, making betting the turn less sensible.

Of course most of my points are moot if you are playing against calling stations or fishes, but again in this scenario whats the point of betting then? you might as well take the free card and make a big bet if you hit and get paid off.

Just my 2 cents
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby pjalt » Wed Jun 30, 2010 5:21 pm

Standard play here is to bet 2/4-3/4 pot, and re-evaluate if c/r.

Preflop is would rais up to 5 ish, either you win the pot there, or you play a pot HU or 3 ways with a good implied odds hand and position. Limp is so spewy.
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby pjalt » Wed Jun 30, 2010 5:25 pm

xcaliblur wrote:Personally i think decision here is alright either way. Whether or not hero bets on turn or just checks is fine and depends on a few factors. Most important of all would be what kind of players is he against? However, personally I would check the turn and get the free card.

A limp from UTG position from tight player might mean a monster hand and he could be slowplaying a set of Kings or Queens. Personally I would raise pre-flop on button with TJs because
1. Depending on how UTG and CO responds i can get some information on their hands
2. I might get them to fold pre-flop
3. I give the impression that I have a strong hand

The problem with betting the turn in this scenario is that its very hard for them to believe that you have much of a hand. If you have KQ, QQ, KK, KA, AQ you would definitely have raised on the button pre-flop. BEst case scenario is that you would likely only have one pair and with this hand betting on the turn when a 2 of spades comes out is a very suspicious move. Plus UTG might be slowplaying a monster like i was saying and make a monster reraise- forcing you to fold a free card that could make your draw.

Another point to consider is that with a player of some skill, there are only few reasons why he would limp UTG
1. Slowplaying a monster hoping someone would raise
2. suited connectors
3. Small pocket pair

Situation 2 and 3 would likely fold on that type of flop once CO bets, so it lends more strength that he has hand type 1. any hand of KA,KK, QQ, AA, or even AQ would unlikely fold to a turn bet.
Also not to forget that even with 15 outs, with only one card to come you are still a large underdog against even only one pair, and with 2 ppl with you in the pot it is likely that at least one of them will have the K or Q paired and will likely call you. This makes fold equity very small, as previous poster said, making it less profitable to bet. Remember, semi-bluffing is more profitable only if you have a strong chance of causing others to fold.

The argument of building the pot in case you hit a monster I would have to disagree on. Point being that you are an underdog in this scenario- this means that most times you will lose the pot, and making another bet on river if you miss is extremely risky IMO in this situation. So why not take the free card? If you make the draw on river, against someone with a pair K you are likely to still extract some value, especially being last to act on river. And if UTG is playing set Kings or Queens, you would likely still extract the maximum once you hit, making betting the turn less sensible.

Of course most of my points are moot if you are playing against calling stations or fishes, but again in this scenario whats the point of betting then? you might as well take the free card and make a big bet if you hit and get paid off.

Just my 2 cents



Omg, long post, but way to NIT dude, and you dont mention anything about metagame value of betting here, if I get c/r I will find push here alot depending on VILANS c/r range

Well I'm a Scandi but anyways.
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby chenghao » Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:33 pm

BB : 34/4/0.7/32/321) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
Using poker stove :
What this stats mean :
I would enter the pot with these hands(VPIP= 34%):
55+,A2s+,K4s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,98s,A4o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
I would enter the pot by raising preflop with these hands (PFR= 4%): 99+,AQs+,AKo
Which means for this sort of players , he can limp into the pot with all sorts of junk cards , They just wanna see the flop and if it fits , they will stay in , otherwise they will fold.

Aggression factor
Description: A measure of how aggressive or passive the player is on a particular street.
Formula: ( Times bet PF|F|T|R + times raised PF|F|T|R ) / ( Times called PF|F|T|R )

the gauge of AF is that those less then 0.7 is very passive 1.5 and above is very aggressive , 0.7 - 1.5 is somewhat balanced.
(needs to be used together with other stats to be meaningful)

WTSD:
Description: The percentage of times the player went to showdown after seeing the flop.
Formula: ( Total Times Went to Showdown / Total Times Saw The Flop ) * 100

From : http://www.hand-histories.com/en/Articl ... Statistics

WTSD (Went to Showdown %) is the percentage of hands in which a player sees a flop and continues through to showdown. There is a strong argument that as a single statistic WTSD is as useful, if not more, as VPIP when it comes to identifying poor players. (Though of course using both is better). A WTSD percentage of 20-25% is considered to be typical for a good player. Much higher than 30% and a player is likely to be seeing the showdown with hands they should have folded. Bluffing a player with a WTSD score of more than 35% is not recommended.

WTSD % by itself is a very broad indicator of post-flop playing tendencies. To really make the most of this statistic, it must be considered in combination with the previous 3 (and the following one, W$SD). I will attempt below to detail the most useful information about an opponent that can be gleaned from combining WTSD with other statistics:

* High VPIP combined with high WTSD - indicates a particularly poor player who can be exploited with value bets and is unlikely to keep their chips for long (though they may get lucky in the short term)

* High PFA combined with high WTSD - suggests that the player may not be making sufficiently large bets to push their opponents out of the pot, perhaps allowing other players to draw out against them

* Low PFA combined with high WTSD - is the mark of a classic passive 'calling station' whose tendency to call can be exploited with value bets but should not be bluffed. They are unlikely to be a winning player

* Combination of W$SD with WTSD will be discussed in detail in the next section

As should be beginning to become clear from the above, taking into account WTSD in-play can greatly assist you in targeting your opponents' weaknesses in-game.

Hands : Getting 100 + hands means you probably have a rough idea how he plays , VPIP / PFR / AF can gauge the class of player he is in , with more hands , you can exploit his other stats like blind defense , each street's play etc. More hands = more reliability ( statistics). Bare minimum = 30 hands

For UTG ($100.00) (40/12/1.2/30/180) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
12 % = 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+
40 % = 44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o
means probably his calling PF with
44 - 66 , A2 - A8s , K2s - K9s , J7- J9s , 97s+,87s,A3- A9o+ , Q8o+,J8o+ , T9o

Of this calling range , QK4
For him to call the flop , he probably fitted it in someway
You beat :A2s - A8s(less A4s) , J7- J9s , 97s+,87s,A3- A9o+(less A4o) J8o+,T9o
You don't beat : 44- 66 , A4s , K2s-k9s , A4o , Q8o+ ,

Since he has called the flop , its likely he has fitted the flop and isn't letting go,remember he overcalled. He isn't like BB who decides it takes too much to overcall.

If say you bet the turn and gets called by UTG and CO and don't improve in the river ? you are building the pot for the fish UTG.

While i am not a fan of checking this turn cos my monster draw is so tempting , i can't bluff a fish (adjust to the fish cos you want to eat seafood and not be fish food!) !!
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby Afternoon » Wed Jun 30, 2010 9:24 pm

Chenghao,

I sometime see your postings I damn scare 1. The more I read the more I realize I know nuts about poker. Hope you 1 day you do bring glory to Singapore Poker sence in live tournament too. Nice sharing, kaki chenghao.

UB
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