Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Discuss the basics, psychology, probability, table selection etc.

Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby DM101 » Wed Jun 30, 2010 10:06 pm

Afternoon wrote:Chenghao,

I sometime see your postings I damn scare 1. The more I read the more I realize I know nuts about poker. Hope you 1 day you do bring glory to Singapore Poker sence in live tournament too. Nice sharing, kaki chenghao.

UB


Sharing is always a great virtue.
Chenghao is such a passionate poker fanatic.
He is a rare spawn, probably can be found 1 out of 500 pokerkaki members. :lol:
Our community needs nice dude like him to keep the forum active.
Keep up the good work Chenghao. :D
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Re: Hand Discussion : #3 Mega Draws

Postby AsiaPokerAcademy » Wed Jun 30, 2010 10:44 pm

chenghao wrote:This was the answer given :
...

The 15 outs give us an excellent equity, but we don't have any showdown value yet. The profitability of a semi-bluff bet lies in its fold equity, which is probably too small in this case. We also have a great position to extract more value on the river if one of our draws is completed, which is why we should go for the free card rather than betting.




Actually, this is a decent line of thought. My only problem with it is that:

1) We are setting ourselves up to win a small pot and have our opponent make a minimal mistake. We are also not taking control of the hand.

Example, We bet $5 into $10, and get one call. On the river, we now have a $20 pot to work with, and can possibly win another $9-$15.
However, if we check, we only have a $10 pot, and any raise will look quite suspect.

2) I disagree that our fold equity is low. Both of our opponents open called pre-flop, and then checked to us on the turn. What in our opponents open calling range hits hard on a KQx flop ? I think it is likely at least one of our opponents is on a draw. Also, weak medium pairs and weak queens like QJ seem like likely holdings. I think we could fold out several hands with a decent bet, but chenghao pointed out, stats are important.

A lot of this decision is opponent specific
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