Good gamble?

Brag about the good, vent over the bad.

Good gamble?

Postby bulkbiz » Wed Aug 25, 2010 11:29 pm

I was the chip leader during middle-late stages where 50 players left, a good shape to make into the money until this hand happen:
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Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 7 players - View hand 887235
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: t6773 33.87 BBs
BB: t5400 27 BBs
Hero (UTG): t14090 70.45 BBs
UTG+1: t7404 37.02 BBs
MP: t2985 14.93 BBs
CO: t3440 17.20 BBs
BTN: t5700 28.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is UTG with AImage KImage
Hero raises to t800, 3 folds, BTN calls t800, 2 folds

Flop: (t1900) AImage 2Image 3Image (2 players)
Hero bets t13290 all in, BTN calls t4900 all in

Turn: (t11700) TImage (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t11700) 4Image (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t11700
Hero shows AImage KImage (a pair of Aces)
BTN shows TImage 9Image (a flush, Ten high)
BTN wins t11700
----------------------------------------------------------------

Well, that was ok, until this hand happen, I believe I made the biggest mistake by shoving, because I really don't believe he had suited card. After review back this hand, I looks like an idiot player who made stupid mistake.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 887244
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: t6973 34.87 BBs
BTN: t5100 25.50 BBs
Hero (SB): t8190 40.95 BBs
BB: t7404 37.02 BBs
UTG: t2985 14.93 BBs
UTG+1: t3440 17.20 BBs
UTG+2: t7875 39.38 BBs
MP1: t8868 44.34 BBs
MP2: t11700 58.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is SB with 4Image 4Image
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t200, 4 folds, Hero calls t100, BB checks

Flop: (t600) 4Image QImage 3Image (3 players)
Hero bets t200, BB calls t200, UTG+2 calls t200

Turn: (t1200) AImage (3 players)
Hero bets t200, BB calls t200, UTG+2 raises to t400, Hero calls t200, BB folds

River: (t2200) JImage (2 players)
Hero bets t200, UTG+2 raises to t900, Hero raises to t7390 all in, UTG+2 calls t6175 all in

Final Pot: t16350
Hero shows 4Image 4Image (three of a kind, Fours)
UTG+2 shows AImage 2Image (a flush, Ace high)
UTG+2 wins t16350
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
bulkbiz
New Fish
 
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2008 5:14 pm

Re: Good gamble?

Postby xcaliblur » Thu Aug 26, 2010 3:18 pm

Pls note that this is my opinion only:
The first hand is alright in my opinion. I dont think villain there would have called your preflop raise with 45s or offsuit since you are UTG raiser.

Therefore it is very hard to imagine that you are behind on a flop of A23 unless he flopped a set against you. It was negative EV for him to call your huge over-pot raise with just a flush draw, yet he did that anyway and lucked out.

The second hand though could be played better. Flop already has 3 diamonds out there, and preflop everyone limped in~ there are a lot of players who like to limp with suited connectors. While its not often that people flop a flush its still a possibility.

And you also have to be suspicious that he made a min raise at the turn. Why would he make that sort of raise? Did he already flop a flush or could he have paired that Ace and have a big diamond in hand?

Either way, at the river you have betted and he raised you at that point was the biggest mistake you made~ no more cards to come and yet you made a BIG reraise. If i counted right pot had only 3300 chips in and you placed 7390, which is more than twice the pot size~ and this is where i disagree.

I am never a huge fan of overbetting the pot unless i am against a calling station and have VERY strong holdings. In that scenario villain has shown strength so you HAVE to consider him to have a possible flush.

Some things you might have done is:
1. make a reraise at turn to get more information. Say if he raised to 400 a reraise to about 1000 doesnt commit much of your stack plus it gives you some sort of information~ if he repops it you can be fairly sure he has a flush and muck your hand or call and hope to hit a fullhouse.
2. Just call his reraise at the river. Sure you might regret it if he doesnt have a flush but think about it~ once you overbet the pot by that amount at river, the only hand that WILL call you is a flush. Most people will probably even muck two pairs in that kind of board (i dont think if villain has 2 pairs he will reraise then anyway). So what value does overbetting the pot in that scenario give you? you would either just win what villain has already put inside, or you would lose all your chips. Therefore you should just call and showdown with him. Calling isnt bad as pot is giving you 3300:700 ratio which is almost 5 to 1 to call.

In short its all about pot odds~ and this is why most pros like to keep the pot small.

Sorry for the long post.
xcaliblur
Challenge Poker Player
 
Posts: 100
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 10:51 pm

Re: Good gamble?

Postby bulkbiz » Thu Aug 26, 2010 3:52 pm

Yes the second hand was really bad hand played. I believed I am still on tilt due to the hand before. Thanks for the comment, it really helps for me to become a better player.
bulkbiz
New Fish
 
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2008 5:14 pm


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