Do you think this is a good bluff?

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Do you think this is a good bluff?

Postby MJFX » Fri Jul 15, 2011 1:50 pm

When you overbet shove at the river, you want to do it for a reason.
what reason would this hero shove all in?
doesnt look a value bet, because he's not likely to get called by worse hands... and there is no worse hands.

so to make it a bluff successfully, means he wants to make a better hand fold..
And quite often a better hand will fold (in this case, any pairs or over pairs) and you can turn your hand with little showdown value into a bluff and get a laydown, but you will never get trip fives or full house to fold.

In this situation, hero's range is polarised. either he has a monster or a bluff, with little in between.
This is what the villian has to decide.

A polarised hand actually can make the decision easier, by reducing the possibilities that have to be considered.
Backtracking through the hand, looking at the board texture may enable us to eliminate one of the possibilities.

Do you think this is a good bluff?



PokerStars Game #64544879458: Tournament #412561061, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2011/07/14 8:24:33 ET
Table '412561061 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: biggielaw (3417 in chips)
Seat 2: Saul2008 (5123 in chips)
Seat 3: matretol (3145 in chips)
Seat 4: flekyaguimes (5106 in chips)
Seat 5: ElohimsTiger (3475 in chips)
Seat 6: cuveenick (2478 in chips)
Seat 7: victor-chen (7640 in chips)
Seat 8: Wouaz (3165 in chips)
Seat 9: MikeyM26a (726 in chips)
Saul2008: posts small blind 15
matretol: posts big blind 30
flekyaguimes: folds
ElohimsTiger: folds
cuveenick: calls 30
victor-chen: raises 60 to 90
Wouaz: folds
MikeyM26a: folds
biggielaw: folds
Saul2008: calls 75
matretol: raises 60 to 150
cuveenick: folds
victor-chen: calls 60
Saul2008: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [2d 3d 5s]
Saul2008: checks
matretol: bets 90
victor-chen: calls 90
Saul2008: folds
*** TURN *** [2d 3d 5s] [5h]
matretol: bets 180
victor-chen: calls 180
*** RIVER *** [2d 3d 5s 5h] [Ks]
matretol: bets 300
victor-chen: raises 5700 to 6000
matretol: calls 2425 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (3275) returned to victor-chen
*** SHOW DOWN ***
victor-chen: shows [7d Qd] (a pair of Fives)
matretol: shows [Ah Ac] (two pair, Aces and Fives)
matretol collected 6470 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6470 | Rake 0
Board [2d 3d 5s 5h Ks]
Seat 1: biggielaw (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Saul2008 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: matretol (big blind) showed [Ah Ac] and won (6470) with two pair, Aces and Fives
Seat 4: flekyaguimes folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: ElohimsTiger folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: cuveenick folded before Flop
Seat 7: victor-chen showed [7d Qd] and lost with a pair of Fives
Seat 8: Wouaz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: MikeyM26a folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Last edited by MJFX on Fri Jul 15, 2011 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Do you think this is a good bluff?

Postby mugiwara84 » Fri Jul 15, 2011 2:12 pm

victor chen is a fish.
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Re: Do you think this is a good bluff?

Postby error4147 » Fri Jul 15, 2011 4:52 pm

i would like to talk about few things :
1-it is better to convert the hand history with a hand history converter software when youre submitting a hand ,so we could follow the action easier .
2-i dont know why victor chen took that line . it seems really fishy .this line may work 10% of the time ..it means he is risking about 3000 to win a pot of almost 1000 .so your bluff must work more than 75% of the time inorder to be break even .. i believe that with 100 bb why should villain commit some chips to the pot after the flop .. his line was so terrible and fishy ..
3- this line is-----------------EV in the long run ...
4- when youre submitting a hand , please include your HUD stats as well as the villian`s HUD stats ,or any possible read on villain . so we could consider the situation better .

good luck
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Re: Do you think this is a good bluff?

Postby axel » Fri Jul 15, 2011 8:06 pm

Would it be a good line to take with quad 5?
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