Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby felixleong » Mon Jun 30, 2008 10:35 am

There was once in this live game, we played like a 3 day marathon and I saw this guy's Aces got crack FIVE TIMES!!!!!!!!
He's face was so sour like his pet just died or something hahaha.
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby gooddoggg8 » Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:47 pm

Good BR management + WINNER AT THE LIMIT YOU ARE PLAYING = NEVER GO BUST!

This is not proven over a day, if someone disputes this, check out 2+2, where tons of high NL pros can make insane loads of money as they handled their BR correctly -> which in turns leads to them been able to afford more than 100 buyins at the highest stakes.

But one thing for sure, unless you are logging in hands as much and is a winner at the limits you are playing, you cant just have an DIE DIE theory unless you have already went through it like leslie(or other grinders)

IF you never been through it, how sure can you be?
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby ohboy » Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:54 pm

gooddoggg8 wrote:Good BR management + WINNER AT THE LIMIT YOU ARE PLAYING = NEVER GO BUST!

This is not proven over a day, if someone disputes this, check out 2+2, where tons of high NL pros can make insane loads of money as they handled their BR correctly -> which in turns leads to them been able to afford more than 100 buyins at the highest stakes.

But one thing for sure, unless you are logging in hands as much and is a winner at the limits you are playing, you cant just have an DIE DIE theory unless you have already went through it like leslie(or other grinders)

IF you never been through it, how sure can you be?



sigh

1) never is a strong word. In this case, it's also wrong.
2) survivorship bias. Those who busted out aren't noticed. Not every winning player gets to reach the top. Stats suggest a handful would have busted out early in their career.
3) The only thing for sure is that variance swings both ways.
4) in 2 words. Random walks.
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby vaevictis » Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:56 pm

Sometimes I hope people actually have the valid experience of logging and playing thru hands before they start commenting.

I'd like to highlight a point made by gooddogg..

Good br management + strong winner at limit you are playing = never go bust ...this is practically true.

Yes theoretically this winner may bust, and due to survivorship bias, this theoretical winner may not have a chance to voice out he has busted.
And yes I won't denounce this possibility of it happening. Because there are marginal 0-1 PTBB/100 winners out there, who are threading a fine line in terms of their winrate and hence have a larger variance.


And of course, there are those who have no credentials and have no significant long term results to prove that they are winners in the stake they are playing, can still continue to offer comments and whatever theory they like. This happens alot in 2+2. I hope readers of this forums read critically and take all advice with a pinch of salt.
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby felixleong » Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:47 pm

A pro high stakes player with good BRM and winrate also can go busto easily if he lives a high roller gambler lifestyle and overspends in areas like girls, sports betting, casino games etc.

Therefore a person's character and lifestyle also has a big influence in his risk of ruins ^_^
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby felixleong » Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:50 pm

and oh ya, don't trust all that you read on 2+2.
A lot of proclaimed "high stakes pro" are actually broke and plenty of them in heavy debts.

Only like 10% are winners but most ppl on the forums or another places online rarely admit they are losers and often claim to be big time winners.
Without hard proof like PT graphs etc, just listen can liao ba hehehe

The poker world is such a vicious place

^_^
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby ohboy » Tue Jul 01, 2008 6:20 am

vaevictis wrote:Sometimes I hope people actually have the valid experience of logging and playing thru hands before they start commenting.

I'd like to highlight a point made by gooddogg..

Good br management + strong winner at limit you are playing = never go bust ...this is practically true.

Yes theoretically this winner may bust, and due to survivorship bias, this theoretical winner may not have a chance to voice out he has busted.
And yes I won't denounce this possibility of it happening. Because there are marginal 0-1 PTBB/100 winners out there, who are threading a fine line in terms of their winrate and hence have a larger variance.


And of course, there are those who have no credentials and have no significant long term results to prove that they are winners in the stake they are playing, can still continue to offer comments and whatever theory they like. This happens alot in 2+2. I hope readers of this forums read critically and take all advice with a pinch of salt.


ahh here i sense you're taking a jab at me, and it would be surly not to reply.

there's nothing "theoretical" about this. We're not talking about blackholes or stuff we can't test. This is stuff that has been tested many many times. Survivorship bias is not something i made up so i can argue with you.

Sure, I don't have "credentials" like you do. I don't play online poker, and i'm certainly not by any stretch of imagination a "winning player". But this is not theories i'm making up to justify my apparent lack of gosu-ness. I stand by my statement that you are not as safe as you think from going bust. This isn't really about poker. It's about basic math and statistics.
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..........................................

Postby pokeyghost » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:25 am

............................................
Last edited by pokeyghost on Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby vaevictis » Fri Sep 12, 2008 3:53 pm

The coaching market currently is small, and even when there are eager students who want to learn, the will certainly look for a good local coach with proven track record.

For those who are interested to go into coaching, its important to keep a good CV (e.g. good records..long term PT stats... and good references)
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby felixleong » Sat Sep 13, 2008 8:59 am

pokeyghost wrote:Gonna bump this up to see what locals think....

I left my job last month to go pro, and am giving free coaching to the SG poker wannabes to hard core cash grinding. But the response is somewhat sad. Yea i am somewhat a fanatic, gonna reach thirties this year, w/o a solid education and risking my 10k savings to give it a shot.

Well poker is very much a discpline game, every decision is your bread and butter, and mind you, i ALSO DO admire the highest regs who has the nicest PT graphs and their eye candy LAMBO. If u need prove, just ask me (This is to dispute Felix thinking of many high stakes pros who are losing, not aiming a shot at you, but i read your blog constantly, and you are NOT making that much effort to improve despite your passion for your game). But with the SG mindset, you must know realistically what you can achieve in a short period and i am setting a target to all those who want to give poker a shot.

Not going try to be famous, but the problem always lies in the individual. Again, not THINKING why u suck (minus variance which all tomdickharry knows) in your game is the biggest leak than tilt.

No offence intended to anyone, just my thought.


LMAO, did you even pass primary school education? Playing micro/low stakes for a living is so LOL and most ordinary people like you will probably not make it in the long run.

See ya a few years down cleaning up the dishes at some random food court :lol:
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby felixleong » Sat Sep 13, 2008 9:01 am

pokeyghost wrote: (This is to dispute Felix thinking of many high stakes pros who are losing, not aiming a shot at you, but i read your blog constantly, and you are NOT making that much effort to improve despite your passion for your game).

GO FUXK YOURSELF WITH A DOG! GET IT!!!
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby DM101 » Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:42 pm

felixleong wrote:
pokeyghost wrote:Gonna bump this up to see what locals think....

I left my job last month to go pro, and am giving free coaching to the SG poker wannabes to hard core cash grinding. But the response is somewhat sad. Yea i am somewhat a fanatic, gonna reach thirties this year, w/o a solid education and risking my 10k savings to give it a shot.

Well poker is very much a discpline game, every decision is your bread and butter, and mind you, i ALSO DO admire the highest regs who has the nicest PT graphs and their eye candy LAMBO. If u need prove, just ask me (This is to dispute Felix thinking of many high stakes pros who are losing, not aiming a shot at you, but i read your blog constantly, and you are NOT making that much effort to improve despite your passion for your game). But with the SG mindset, you must know realistically what you can achieve in a short period and i am setting a target to all those who want to give poker a shot.

Not going try to be famous, but the problem always lies in the individual. Again, not THINKING why u suck (minus variance which all tomdickharry knows) in your game is the biggest leak than tilt.

No offence intended to anyone, just my thought.


LMAO, did you even pass primary school education? Playing micro/low stakes for a living is so LOL and most ordinary people like you will probably not make it in the long run.

See ya a few years down cleaning up the dishes at some random food court :lol:


Dun really want to get involved in this but I think we should put a FULLSTOP to this before this flaming war spread further. I believe both of you are constantly trying to improve your poker games. To each its own. Every individual has different playing style and learning skill. No poker player dare to say that they are the BEST PLAYER in this world, not even the Legendary Doyle Brunson, oh wait maybe there is one... "Poker Brat", Phil Hellmuth, who claims to be one but he has offended many players. His arrogance is so well known that no one want to be his friend.

This forum is a place for poker players to hang out and share their poker experience with others. All of us are trying to learn from each other here. Let's make this forum a friendly environment and always think twice before we comment on other or even mention name of players. Show some RESPECT to others and stay HUMBLE always.

Ok guys, shake hands and hug each other :D
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby vaevictis » Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:50 pm

Lets provide closure to this.
My primary purpose for this forum is to educate and improve, for all players including myself, and at all skill levels as well.

At the meantime, all posters should practice good etiquette and take all comments, be it good or bad, in good stead. It will be better for the community and reputation of pkaki.
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Re: Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

Postby pokeyghost » Sat Sep 13, 2008 5:22 pm

............................................
Last edited by pokeyghost on Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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