First hand Sunday 10M $215

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Re: First hand Sunday 10M $215

Postby MJFX » Thu Dec 22, 2011 5:48 pm

Our uncle bob (level zero grandmaster) said, against team pro, must try something different!
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Re: First hand Sunday 10M $215

Postby axel » Thu Dec 22, 2011 8:07 pm

Is checking the flop after 3betting pre the best play? Are you planning to c/r or c/c to slowplay?
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Re: First hand Sunday 10M $215

Postby valkyr » Fri Dec 23, 2011 11:08 am

always bet the flop. If villain is indeed a pokerstars pro we can then expect him to be decent. with that said i doubt a decent player would want to attempt big bluffs early in the million and his range is extremely polarized here. Its either the 9J/AJ or air(extremely unlikely). I do not think any villain will play a flopped set this way.

Its nice to theorize this and that but in reality i doubt i would ever fold top set here the way the hand played out.
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Re: First hand Sunday 10M $215

Postby SetKing » Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:26 pm

Hi there

here my thoughts but I think the hand was play pretty badly

why check flop? (think big mistake on Hero end)
lots of aggressive player play their value hand weak and bluff hand strong which I think is a mistake or leak (they like to bet or cbet when they don have showdown value while when they have a hand like this case, check to keep pots small out of position when eff stack is deep

should bet the flop as still get Value from 99, JJ, QQ and overcard floats - anyway player will usually think pro cbet like 100% of the time on this board texture on a 3bet pot.

so now Hero bet the turn for Value, villian call
so villian range now
No 67 or str draw card as usually will bet flop most of the time when Hero check flop
99 sometime only but mostly bet will bet on flop and now call in position for bluff catching
55 / 88 / TT - not possible as will surely raise for Value from AQ
JJ / QQ - mostly not cos will bet the flop for value and protect their hand again A and K on the next 2 streets
AJ / AK - most of the time as calling to catch gut shot and hand might be still good and also in position to see Hero react on the rvr
AQ / KQ - most of the time and now had top pr

so now rvr u bet he raise
as you play your KK this way and hit the set on the rvr, most of the time we guess we have to call the rvr bet but if we think deeper slightly I think a fold is possible

Hero rvr bet was a value bet for AQ, KQ and other possible metioned above that don believe you as K is a good bluff card for you
So for him to reraise that size on the rvr is 95% no bluff range, he is surely having a made hand and value rasing you (unless he is 1 level above what we are thinking, turning his 1 pair into a bluff and folding stronger hand like your AK and also folding your your bluff range... but this is highly not possible from the re raise size)

So at the rvr with the above mentioned, I define his hand range to be only AJ or KQ re raising you for Value.. as you had 2 KK already so KQ is so unlikely of the time..
So only left AJ, so fold is that that diff actually from my thoughts breakdown on the street play..

Just a comment
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Re: First hand Sunday 10M $215

Postby felixleong » Fri Dec 23, 2011 3:12 pm

my analysis

preflop... he raise early position and called your raise.. hand range more towards mid pair like 88-JJ or high cards A9+ KQ+ QJs

Flop if you were planning to check-call to keep the pot small its fine. you were out of position and always remember small hand small pot, big hand big pot.. in such situation small pot is good. Note your check also looked like AK/AQ missing the flop.

Flop if villian was holding a mid pair 88,99,JJ a bet would be more likely as he didnt want to give u a free card,
since he checked.. a strong set like TT or high cards AKQJ looking for free turn card more likely.

Turn Q was a card that might had helped villian, he responded with calling your bet.. indicating either a pair or a strong draw

River was a mix... you had top set but with 3 high cards on the flop you fear only the straight, bet for value is a sure thing. Villian responded by a raise, if he had 2 pair.. was he trying to get value from a hand like AK or AQ
if he had the straight his raise will too strong, as it would scare a pair away.

Overall I will be calling the river raise more often then folding, I think there's a higher probablity of villian having 2 pair or bluffing then having a straight with AJ

cheers
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Re: First hand Sunday 10M $215

Postby SetKing » Fri Dec 23, 2011 3:34 pm

Flop: (t820) 5 8 T (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 check

Turn: (t820) Q (2 players)
Hero bets t480, UTG+2 calls t480

River: (t1780) K (2 players)
Hero bets t1168, UTG+2 raises to t4080, Hero ????

Hi Felix

i don really agree with your point if you may pardon me..
you were saying that the villian had a higher % of 2 pairs there but which 2 pairs that will raise the rvr
KQ or KT as I mentioned, Hero had 2 Ks so less likely villian had a K
QT will have raise the turn
so I don see any other 2 pair possible that can or will raise the rvr bet

A set there is not possible as mentioned in my earlier post

So rvr raise either bluff or AJ only (so think back, 1st level of the tournament, big bluff raise % super low - had to be AJ higher % of the time
(not even 9J as I mentioned earlier too cos 9J will bet on flop most of the time, even nvr bet flop will rvr turn to struture bigger rvr value bet)

I still feel strongly from my breakdown above that rvr is a fold so hand range is so clearly define - AJ
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Re: First hand Sunday 10M $215

Postby Brasstal » Sat Dec 24, 2011 11:12 am

After discussing with some others and looking back its never a fold on the river the way the hand played out.

On hindsight would have been better to bet bet bet and fold to a raise. River raise imo is not defined, felix & myself highlighted the ranges that would raise in that spot.

With the way I played the hand I could be betting AQ/ AK for value and he could be value raising me with QT/KQ/ KT ? KJ (less likely) etc and there is a couple of bluff hands for him too.

So looking at villains play and with the help of hindsight its very easy to say that villain 100% has AJ and its clearly defined but it must also be taken into consideration the weak way I played the hand and therefore include more bluffs/thin valuing on his part. Just my two cents worth.
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Re: First hand Sunday 10M $215

Postby Afternoon » Sat Dec 24, 2011 11:56 am

MJFX wrote:Our uncle bob (level zero grandmaster) said, against team pro, must try something different!


Sorry, I am not a theory man.
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Re: First hand Sunday 10M $215

Postby SetKing » Sat Dec 24, 2011 2:26 pm

Brasstal wrote:After discussing with some others and looking back its never a fold on the river the way the hand played out.

On hindsight would have been better to bet bet bet and fold to a raise. River raise imo is not defined, felix & myself highlighted the ranges that would raise in that spot.

With the way I played the hand I could be betting AQ/ AK for value and he could be value raising me with QT/KQ/ KT ? KJ (less likely) etc and there is a couple of bluff hands for him too.

So looking at villains play and with the help of hindsight its very easy to say that villain 100% has AJ and its clearly defined but it must also be taken into consideration the weak way I played the hand and therefore include more bluffs/thin valuing on his part. Just my two cents worth.



i agree that as you play your hand weak therefore the villains range include more bluff and thin valuing
But had a few thoughts on my mind that couldn't add up from your explaination above

if the villain had QT, he will bet the flop when u check to him... even if he check back, turn he will raise your bet surely also... if you saying he don raise with QT on the turn, then why will he raise the rvr bet then - so no QT

if the villain had KT, will he not bet the flop - 95% of the time yes

if the villain had KQ, he might or might not raise the rvr. might as for valuing for AK. might not as now you could have AJ there also

so we left with KQ/AJ/bluff, as i explain in my earlier post, rvr raise size will never be a bluff there... it will be a made hand and rasing for value... so i still think AJ so often of the time
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Re: First hand Sunday 10M $215

Postby Brasstal » Sat Dec 24, 2011 5:46 pm

i agree that as you play your hand weak therefore the villains range include more bluff and thin valuing
But had a few thoughts on my mind that couldn't add up from your explaination above

if the villain had QT, he will bet the flop when u check to him... even if he check back, turn he will raise your bet surely also... if you saying he don raise with QT on the turn, then why will he raise the rvr bet then - so no QT

if the villain had KT, will he not bet the flop - 95% of the time yes

if the villain had KQ, he might or might not raise the rvr. might as for valuing for AK. might not as now you could have AJ there also

so we left with KQ/AJ/bluff, as i explain in my earlier post, rvr raise size will never be a bluff there... it will be a made hand and rasing for value... so i still think AJ so often of the time


Good points u raised there. First of all I need to make it a point that unknowns and randoms as well as some professionals take very weird lines against regular + team pros.

For QT what u say is very true, even if checking back on flop its very likely he raises me on turn although for him to raise turn he has to put me on AQ/AA/KK etc which does not fall in line with the way action went. However with a hand as strong as QT on turn yes - he should raise the turn 99.99% of the time - unless he chooses to take a peculiar line with me if he think I will not pay him off. There also is a possibility that he does have QQ in this spot and does not see me paying him off with a raise. Its almost the same situation with QT here but with QQ it eliminates the possibility of me holding a Q eg AQ KQ. QQ does check back on these boards given the preflop action after all.

We definitely are left with some bluffs 67 + KQ + KT + QQ and less likely QT/TT/88/55 (as you pointed out). As for hands that beat me that leaves me with AJ and J9.

Dun hate me for being stubborn / bad but I still think it's pretty tough to fold in this spot. I get a lot of my chips from calling down bluffs and people do turn up with the most absurd hands. I wouldn't have been surprised to see total air from him as a float on the turn was a big possibility. With the possibility of bluffs + hands that villain could have over-valued hmmmz. Really tough spot. I guess thats why I tanked for 2mins before calling.

I 100% agree that the best line would to have bet the flop, and I played the hand bad. I just adjust as a team pro and take slightly different lines against people. However I think in such a big tournament with many unknowns and randoms I should just play straight forward solid poker instead of take the usual lines against the regs. Perhaps it was multi-tabling with the other reg-infested tourny I had that day.

Anyway thanks for the feedback! This was a really tough spot for me tbh.
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