Extremely Important Information

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Extremely Important Information

Postby Belousov » Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:57 pm

This is probably one of the best threads online right now. It gives a pure mathematical answer to a play that may seem like misology, and it denotes it as +cEV. http://www.pocketfives.com/poker-forums/7/Glorious-shove-by-DJK-in-1k-on-stars-3082457

Sidenote, I actually worked the maths out a month ago, after I finished my Master's degree (second in my class whoo!) and have opened up my pushing range quite a bit in sng's. This has resulted in an avg. of 5$US in ,primarily, 16$ STT on stars over the last 450 games.
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby ohboy » Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:33 pm

care to discuss the calculations here?

i'm interested
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby suitedpairs29 » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:36 am

I have seen the post way before you had mentioned it here on pokerkaki and the initial impression I was given was that the play was purely a gamble play. As seen, DJK, a top online pro, shoved to win 800 with QTo on the SB , risking his entire stack and happened to run into a JJ of the BB and was fortunate to flop two 10s. Most online pros take risks like this and gamble it up with 70-30 or 80-20 spots and take a big stack in order to cruise into the final table.

Maybe I need to look this up again.
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby felixleong » Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:09 pm

Yeah it seems like nowadays getting more common for mid/high stakes players to try gambling up early as to create a powerful big stack, having a nice shot to bully one's way to the final table is it :lol: . haha
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby ohboy » Wed Jul 23, 2008 2:49 pm

anyone else as irritated as i am that Belousov opens up topics, talks about them vaguely, and never returns again?

this is the second topic he's opened that i've been interested in. But I need elaboration dammit. What do you mean you worked out the math. Show me the math! I wanna see!
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby felixleong » Wed Jul 23, 2008 9:29 pm

hehehe, I love to see some maths too.
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby newbie » Wed Jul 23, 2008 10:53 pm

here's the math, i also worked it out.

supposing you have a 25k stack, blinds are 1/2k.
you're in the BB and SB has 28k..

SB completes and you shove.. the math is..

if you get called and win, you double up to 50k. if you get called and lose, you're busted out.
if you don't get called and take it down preflop, your stack goes up to 27k, before the next hand comes.

that's all, ohboy, the key is knowing how deep your stack is and how big the blinds are.

yeah, i know, call me a genius.
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby felixleong » Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:59 am

LOL, haha maybe guys... just use the sng wizard to calculate la hahahahaha

^^
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby Belousov » Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:51 am

Sorry for the delay, if you have any questions about the maths involved here please post a few HH or type out some situations and I will give the mathematical answers. Honestly to type out all of the maths I worked out to come to my conclusion is just superfluous. Pokerstove is your friend :)
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby ohboy » Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:24 pm

Belousov wrote: Honestly to type out all of the maths I worked out to come to my conclusion is just superfluous. Pokerstove is your friend :)


not if you're interested more in the theory than the results. Do me a favor and post your calculations?
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby Belousov » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:13 pm

OK First of all you need to establish a range of hands your opponent will be calling you with using the previous reads, stack sizes , et. al. After establishing the the hand ranges they will be calling with, calculate the equity your hand will have against aforementioned calling range. To begin the equation we must elect a variable for the unknown, which in this case will be the amount of chips that make a shove =ev, (Q). Then set the equation to 0 which will be neutralev. Lets say your opponent is calling with 5% of his range. The blinds are 125/250 25 ante at a 9 player table. You have 6,050 in chips and your opponent has 7,000, BvB. Folded to you, you look at KTs which has ~31% equity against said range. The calculation looks like this.

.95(600) +.05{(Q*31%)-(Q*69%)}=0

now solve for Q using basic algebra

Q= 570/.019 = 30,000 chips
this does not mean it is profitable but that it is =ev to push with up to 30K in chips. Now implant the chips stacks into the equation when the BB calls. ( I'm rounding some of the number because i don't want to use a calculator)
/----% of hands he calls with
.95(600) + .05{(6050)(.31) -(5800)(.69)}= ~470 which is +ev 1.88BB
^ %of hands he folds

^^^^ You can repeat this as many times as you want in a sundry array situations. Of course there is a difference between +ev and +$ev, but that is a little more complicated and you can figure it out for yourself :P . Also, there is a funny phenomenon called, "tournament life" that most mathematical players refuse to succumb to, but very successful player have used this theory to great effect; such as pearljammer and phil helmuth. These calculations do not take that into account whatsoever. Gl at the tables
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby ohboy » Mon Aug 11, 2008 1:40 am

Belousov wrote:OK First of all you need to establish a range of hands your opponent will be calling you with using the previous reads, stack sizes , et. al. After establishing the the hand ranges they will be calling with, calculate the equity your hand will have against aforementioned calling range. To begin the equation we must elect a variable for the unknown, which in this case will be the amount of chips that make a shove =ev, (Q). Then set the equation to 0 which will be neutralev. Lets say your opponent is calling with 5% of his range. The blinds are 125/250 25 ante at a 9 player table. You have 6,050 in chips and your opponent has 7,000, BvB. Folded to you, you look at KTs which has ~31% equity against said range. The calculation looks like this.

.95(600) +.05{(Q*31%)-(Q*69%)}=0

now solve for Q using basic algebra

Q= 570/.019 = 30,000 chips
this does not mean it is profitable but that it is =ev to push with up to 30K in chips. Now implant the chips stacks into the equation when the BB calls. ( I'm rounding some of the number because i don't want to use a calculator)
/----% of hands he calls with
.95(600) + .05{(6050)(.31) -(5800)(.69)}= ~470 which is +ev 1.88BB
^ %of hands he folds

^^^^ You can repeat this as many times as you want in a sundry array situations. Of course there is a difference between +ev and +$ev, but that is a little more complicated and you can figure it out for yourself :P . Also, there is a funny phenomenon called, "tournament life" that most mathematical players refuse to succumb to, but very successful player have used this theory to great effect; such as pearljammer and phil helmuth. These calculations do not take that into account whatsoever. Gl at the tables


see. was that so hard to elaborate?

so to summarize,

the equation quoted above is based on the principle:
Expected value = Value of instant takedown + Value of playing to river
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby felixleong » Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:28 am

now, lets talk about ICM :lol:
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Re: Extremely Important Information

Postby Belousov » Tue Aug 12, 2008 5:41 am

All joking aside, if anyone wants to start another thread with the maths of ICM I would enjoy being a part of it . Haters of math beware :twisted:
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