Nice Hero Call by me

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Nice Hero Call by me

Postby gosubay » Mon Apr 23, 2012 9:12 pm

This is played on Zoom 2,5/5. Villain is 25/14, I think he is a reg fish from the small sample I have on him. A bit loose and on the passive side, but not too terrible.

Poker Stars $500.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1739458
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $564.66
Hero (SB): $525.36
BB: $1548.59
UTG: $302.33
MP: $606.69
CO: $218.58

Pre Flop: ($7.50) Hero is SB with QImage KImage
UTG raises to $12.50, 1 fold, CO calls $12.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $10, 1 fold

Flop: ($42.50) TImage 9Image 4Image (3 players)
Hero bets $28.41, UTG folds, CO calls $28.41

I have a Gutshot, 2 over-cards and a Backdoor Flush Draw. I donk out because I think the initial raiser misses this board about 75%-80% of the time. He probably should be folding KQ as well and his calling range should look like QJ/78/AT/JJ+/sets/T9s. He has to play honestly against me because it's a 3-way pot with the fish behind and I would donk all my strong hands too because I would want to go for value against the fish and it could easily get checked around, given that this is not a board where the PreFlop Raiser would bluff at very often.

The fish seems to not be totally spewy, I have his fold to cbet as 67% (2 out of 3 times). I"m guessing that he should be folding a 9 pretty often, and only calling with his straight draws and TX.

Turn: ($99.32) TImage (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

This is such a bad card for me, if he has 9X he's never folding it on the Turn now. So I check to give up. Villain INSTANTLY checks behind

River: ($99.32) 5Image (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $70.00, Hero calls $70

This card doesn't change the board at all. I check and villain bets after 5 seconds. A few things came to mind
1. How often would he be calling with 9X when I lead in a 3way pot? I am discounting 9X from his range to some extent.
2. He instantly checks back the Turn. A TX hand would spend some time thinking about a value bet.
3. I think he is passive/trappy enough to slowplay pre-flop but he would also spend some time thinking about a value bet with an over-pair
4. His sizing on the River is not consistent with a 9. Most fishes bet more weakly (50% pot or less) with a 2nd-pair type of hand. Perhaps he might do this with A9 (2nd pair top kicker) or K9

I'm getting decent pot odds of 70/240 (28%). He can have KQ, QJ, 98s, KJ, J8s, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s. Since I am discounting some 9X from his range for various reasons mentioned above, I think this is a clear call with the nut-no pair. If he somehow has AQ/AK on the flop (if he does have this he should be calling any pair as well which would prove my assumptions false), I believe he would try to show down with Ace high.

Final Pot: $239.32
Hero shows QImage KImage
CO shows 8Image JImage
Hero wins $236.52
(Rake: $2.80)

If he has all KJo/KQo/A9s-J9s

Equity Win Tie
MP2 38.96% 27.27% 11.69% A9s, KJs+, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J9s, 87s, KJo+
MP3 61.04% 49.35% 11.69% KQo

If he doesn't have KJ/KQ at all

Equity Win Tie
MP2 60.00% 60.00% 0.00% A9s, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J9s, 87s
MP3 40.00% 40.00% 0.00% KQo

Remember we need 28% to make a profitable call here and even in a worst case scenario we are still doing pretty well

Hope you guys found this hand interesting
gosubay
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Re: Nice Hero Call by me

Postby tcs » Mon Apr 23, 2012 10:06 pm

good analysis here! bravo
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tcs
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