Turning an Mid Over Pair Into a Bluff on a good river

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Turning an Mid Over Pair Into a Bluff on a good river

Postby gosubay » Sun Apr 29, 2012 6:42 pm

Villain is 23/20/9, He seems straightforwardly aggressive, meaning he barrels a lot but I don't think he's tricky and sophisticated. Not completely positive about this but I suspected this.

Poker Stars $500.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1747155
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $625.81
SB: $408.03
BB: $2050.93
UTG: $610.62
MP: $963.99
Hero (CO): $505.70

Pre Flop: ($7.50) Hero is CO with [8d] [8c]
1 fold, MP raises to $15, Hero calls $15, 3 folds

Flop: ($37.50) [4h] [6h] [4d] 4Image 6Image 6Image (2 players)
MP bets $20.00, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($77.50) [2h] 2Image (2 players)
MP bets $55.00, Hero calls $55

River: ($187.50) [3s] 3Image (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $156.00, MP folds

Final Pot: $187.50
Hero wins $184.70
(Rake: $2.80)


I think the Flop and Turn Play is pretty standard.
River is interesting. Villain checked within 5 seconds and I don't think he ever fancy plays anything here (like checking a boat)

My calling range on the Turn looks like 55/33/6X/44/22/77+/flushes. I don't have too many AhX type of hand which double floated besides AhJ and AhQ. I have Ah2h-AhQh in my range as well as stuff like suited connectors or suited broadways.

Because my range is just way too strong on this River, villain clearly cannot bet for value with his over-pairs cos I would be folding 77-TT most of the time. And he cannot check/call the River with his over-pairs unless he puts me on a pair turned into a bluff, or a double float with AhQ/AhJ which he cannot be completely certain of.

While I do have some showdown value with my pocket pair for sure, I think that betting is significantly better because I should fold his entire range out close to 100% of the time (unless one of my assumptions is wrong). The key is that the river has to bring a 2 or 5 so that I have even more straights and boats. If not I would not turn my hand into a bluff.

Final Pot: $187.50
Hero wins $184.70
(Rake: $2.80)
Last edited by gosubay on Wed May 02, 2012 9:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Turning an Mid Over Pair Into a Bluff on a good river

Postby QueensCutie » Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:02 pm

And he cannot check/call the River with his over-pairs unless he puts me on a pair turned into a bluff


I think his line until the river check absolutely screams either
-check/fold with two high cards (unless you know that he threebarrells those) or
-check/call with a pair.

I think he will call with most pairs, and the bluff will be unprofitable. You played it very passively, not sure what he can put you on (except something that beats his AJ ;) ). If you had a strong hand (or a bluff) on the flop or the turn, you would have been more aggressive. The river is very unlikely to have improved you, I don't think it's a good river to bluff.
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Re: Turning an Mid Over Pair Into a Bluff on a good river

Postby MJFX » Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:37 pm

If villian is straight forward guy:
- he is chk folding a hand u beat ie he is giving up
Or
- he is chk calling to induce, ie he has a hand that beat eights
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Re: Turning an Mid Over Pair Into a Bluff on a good river

Postby tiltedonk » Tue May 01, 2012 1:38 pm

Based on how the hand is played. it is very likely that you had the best hand.

Hands that you lose to based on this board is simply 99+. (villian is obv never check-folding a random 6 or a rivered straight here)

IMO, 99-1010 or maybe even JJ is probably going to check call you on the river after having bet the turn though a small percentage of the time you might get him to fold those. Depending on villian's tendencies, QQ-AA is probably betting the river for value and if he does check river with QQ+ , i should think hes definitely call your river bet. So basically i feel your specifically folding out 99-1010(sometimes JJ) based on the simplicity of this board texture and getting called by everything else that beats you. Think a check back on river seems best unless your going for value, which again is very thin.

Just my 2 cents worth.
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Re: Turning an Mid Over Pair Into a Bluff on a good river

Postby gosubay » Wed May 02, 2012 9:47 pm

it makes completely no sense to check/call with 99-AA here, unless he knew I would turn 88 into a bluff.
If you think about it, I have absolutely no value in betting 88 and worse. I would always check back these hands. At the same time I cannot have other air, because I can't really have 2 overcards
My range mostly looks like flushes, straights and fullhouses when I bet.

Let's put it this way. If I had AA and you were never betting 88 as the player in position, I have absolutely no reason to c/c the River because you are only betting hands that beat me.

My thought process with AA would be
1) Could I bet this river for value? Answer is obviously not. Other guy rarely has JJ-KK which may make a crying call. He will mostly have 77-TT which will fold the River really often given the amount of coordination
2) Could I check to induce a bluff? Villain got to the river with really few bluffs. All flush draws hit and there are a couple of straight draws as well. He cannot have a busted draw. It is not too likely that he calls again with overcards for 2 streets as well.

Thus the best line is to c/f here.
Last edited by gosubay on Wed May 02, 2012 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Turning an Mid Over Pair Into a Bluff on a good river

Postby gosubay » Wed May 02, 2012 10:00 pm

@queenscutie: board is paired, I have absolutely no reason to fast play any of my full houses.
@MJFX: what is he trying to induce from? on this particular river as well as a 5 I have almost everything beat. While it is not completely out of the question for me to show up with 2 over cards (i did mention I could have the occasional Ah Jx or Ah Qx, I am way more likely to have a full house/straight/flush here when I bet this river. And he should not expect me to turn 88 into a bluff without any history.
I do think c/c River with an over-pair is a huge mistake for villain.

Ah Jx + Ah Qx (3 out of 6 combos) - I discount this by 50% because villain cannot assume that I float this flop with 2 overcards all the time.
55 (6 combos)
33 (3 combos)
22 (3 combos)
66 (3 combos)
44 (1 combo)
Nut Flushes (AhXh) - (8 combos)
KhQh/KhJh/KhTh (3 combos)
QhJh/QhTh/JhTh/Jh9h/Th9h/9h8h/Th8h (7 combos)

1) Assuming he never puts me on a weak pair turned into a bluff...
He beats 3 combos out of 30 combos so his equity on the river against my betting range is 10%
I bet pretty large so he's getting 29.3% pot odds.

29% pot odds is way larger than his 10% equity so this is a pretty easy fold.

2) If he always expects me to turn 77 into a bluff which I think is pretty optimistic if he is read-less (like in this case)

77 (6 combos)

He now beats 9 out of 36 combos which is 25%. He still cannot make a profitable call unless he thinks I turn 88 into a bluff always as well.
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Re: Turning an Mid Over Pair Into a Bluff on a good river

Postby MJFX » Thu May 03, 2012 1:00 am

Very insightful thots u have. Txs for sharing.
You may be aware of what u are doing but not ur straight forward / sometimes robotic opponent. So ur play hinges alot on determining the exact level of thinking ur opponent is on.
Not only u puting ur opponent as str forward, u puting him as short sighted. Put it this way, if he is str forward and wary of paired board/flush on the turn, he wld likely chk turn as pot control. Assuming he has big overpair, getting called on the turn means he may face a difficult spot on the river facing an all in. Also, chking turn gives him the opportunity to put in the last bet on the river w/o having to go all in if chk chk turn. Not to forget he is oop. He is not stupid not to know even AA is at best a bluff catcher on the river facing a bet. (assuming getting called on the turn). My main pt here is straight forward ppl want to avoid this spot.

If he is not wary, the other straight forward thinking is betting turn means he is prepared to go all the way (call river) or he is simply double barrelling (giving up river) hence my earlier post as explained. Even straight forward ppl think ahead.

checking river also underep his hand getting > bluff catcher value from hands he beat where weaker opponents trying to extract thin value bets.
I dun agree ur range is way too strong, if its way too strong, u never gg to get paid off. In fact, its way too polarising and polarising makes it easier to decide. Though my guess is it didnt matter as he already decided what he wanted to do on the turn.
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Re: Turning an Mid Over Pair Into a Bluff on a good river

Postby gosubay » Thu May 03, 2012 3:20 pm

i didnt mean that straight forward means he's stupid but straight forward meaning he doesn't take tricky lines like checking to checkraise on this river. if that's the case then he would just bet turn with his overpairs to get value from my 88 and c/f this particular river. don't forget that I am only opting to bluff on the 3 and the 5 cos it coordinates the board even further. he might be betting the turn and betting most other blank rivers because I might still make a hero call.
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Re: Turning an Mid Over Pair Into a Bluff on a good river

Postby MJFX » Sat May 05, 2012 12:56 am

Ur explain somewhat got me thinking. Wow, u r light yrs ahead!
Thanks.
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